Stop the Excuses: VT vs Miami Reaction

Last night I posed the question, “What really is the problem with this year’s VT football team?” I wasn't sure where do go with it.  Is it the Offensive Scheme? Offensive Play Calling? Execution? Head Coach? After sleeping on it, my theory is that the program has been infiltrated by a non-creative stagnant leadership.  We have lost our edge as a program.  We are weak across the board, from the Athletic Director to long snapper (I miss Collin Carroll).  Here is my proof.  Check out these road and neutral site turnover stats from cfbstats.com (the site only goes back to 2007, so that’s how far I went back):

VT Road/Neutral Turnover Ratio vs National Average

I know these numbers might seem like a bunch of mumbo jumbo, but here is a quick explanation so stay with me.  Over the past 5 years, the Hokies have been better than average on the road or on neutral fields when it comes to turnover margin.  Even more, every year that they have finished with a top 15% margin (greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean), they have won the ACC.  This year, the Hokies are on the verge of finishing the season in the bottom 3% of all FBS college football.  They are currently #121 of 124 teams, and this is 2 years away from leading all teams in this category in 2010.  And you can’t even come close to saying the teams we played this year are anywhere near as good as the teams we played away from home in 2010.  Here is the comparison:

2010: #3 Boise State, Boston College,#23 NC State, North Carolina, #21 Miami, #20 Florida State, #5 Stanford

2012: Pittsburg, Cincinnati, North Carolina, #14 Clemson, Miami

So what is the difference? How can we go from kicking butt on the road, to falling so flat? We had won 12 straight true road games from 2009 through the Pitt game this year!

Like I said above, my premise is that the program has lost its edge.  And I believe whole heartedly that this is caused by faulty leadership.  True leadership creates a team culture where mistakes are limited and people are held accountable for their mistakes.  A leader also steps up their game in hostile environments and clutch situations.  We have NONE of this! Where has it gone?  

I have never heard more excuses for mistakes in my life.  Someone (anyone!) please stand up and say, “this was my fault, I take responsibility.”  Then, lead this team forward.  STOP THE EXCUSES! Has Beamer stopped leading well, what is Bud doing? We all know O'Cainspring can't cut it.  Is it the players? Did Tyrod, Willson, Willams and Randle make up for the faults of the coaching staff over the past 5 years?  I sure think so... 

Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech Reaction

I don’t understand how a team can leave such a sweet taste in my mouth, while looking so terrible.  But, for the first time that I can remember, Virginia Tech didn’t choke in the clutch! And because of that, I have reason for optimism as we head into week 2.  While there are so many things to be concerned of moving forward, I am extremely excited about this team and ready to see us bounce back extremely well as the season progresses. 

In the spirit of irrational optimism, here are some of the things that impressed me about this Hokies team. 

(1) The entire defense looked incredible.  If you look back at the game, the first TD was scored on a short field.  While I would have loved to see them held a FG there, I give the D a pass here.  The FG drive was against a tired defense which had been on the field for over 10 minutes of the 3^rd quarter.  But they stiffened up when it mattered and kept them out of the end zone.  Finally, the last TD drive was somewhat of a concern and should have been stopped several times.  Even still, I’m impressed and look forward to how good this D can be.  They held the #2 rushing offense from last year to under 200 yards! That's incredibly done!

(2) Special teams looked promising.  I know there was a missed FG and a botched snap/catch/punt.  However, other than that, there were no mistakes.  I have full faith in Journell and think that Hughes might be the best punter around VT in a while.   Remember the 19 yd. punts last year and having a WR handle punting duties? Yeah… this is better. 

(3) Discipline.  There were very few penalties in the game, no turnovers, very few stupid mistakes, and several clutch performances (Fullers, Thomas, Journell).  This is so un-Hokie-like and a good sign moving forward.

(4) The running game looks promising.  I know we had less than 100 yds rushing, but we would have had 22 more yards without the botched punt.  I think Logan will put together a nice season running the ball and Michael Holmes / JC Coleman looked like they belonged in the backfield.  Coleman looked like a young David Wilson / change of pace back and Holmes looks like he can handle the bulk of the duties and run between the tackles. 

Go ahead, tell me I’m being way to optimistic, I don’t care!  This is our year!

Check out my reaction to my picks here.  

Power Rankings: Week 1

The Dallas Hokie Power Rankings - Week 1

1)     Alabama (Prev. 1)

2)     USC (2) 

3)     Oregon (3)

4)     LSU (4)

5)     Georgia (5)

6)     West Virginia (9)
7)     Arkansas (8)

8)     Florida State (10)
9)     Oklahoma (6)

10)   Clemson (12)

11)   South Carolina (11)

12)   Michigan State (14)

13)   Virginia Tech (13)

14)   Nebraska (15)

15)   Michigan (7)   

On the verge (in no particular order) – Texas, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin

Biggest jump: West Virginia - 3 spots
Biggest drop: Michigan - 8 spots

While Alabama and Oregon both impressed this weekend, there was no real room for a change with the top five in the rankings.  But after that, things started to shake up a bit.  West Virginia benefited  from some lackluster performances by some of the teams ranked ahead of them and Michigan made a huge fall after their loss.  I didn't drop them completely out because, while they did look terrible, they played a great team and shouldn't be punished immensely for their loss.  Oklahoma State would be my pick to take their spot if they experience any sort of hangover this week.  Also, I left Virginia Tech and South Carolina in place because of their close wins over decent conference foes.  We will learn a lot more about those teams as the season progresses.  

Guest Post: Mrs. dallas hokie (Part 2)

If you missed part 1 of today's post you can check it out here.  Mrs. dallas hokie gave us some great info about Oklahoma State and this coming football season.  

In this post I ask her to make some predictions for the upcoming season.  I've read them and while I might not agree with everything, I can't argue with her logic.  

5) So we all know you hate OU and think Landry Jones is overrated, but who do you think will win the Big 12? And do you have a preseason pick for Heisman? If so, who? If not, why won’t Landry Jones win it? Also, who will play for the National Championship? Who will win?

Let me just say that as I have gotten older, I don’t hate OU – I’m just tired of OU because sometimes they just whip right into why their football program is better than ours (Not disputing that, it is historically better than ours) rather than having a good debate about our program and other Big 12 teams programs. But they should be cheering for OSU/Baylor/Kansas State to be better in football so our conference has more parity; it makes our conference more exciting. It’s kind of boring with Texas and OU always duking it out. I have had solid discussions with OU fans about our program and other Big 12 team’s programs, though. I respect their team and program and their history. And what annoys me most about Landry Jones is that molest-stache. Bothers me on Derek Holland. Bothers me on Landry Jones.

Honestly, I really have enjoyed watching Matt Barkley. Although I really think Collin Klein from Kansas State is such a talented, old-school style QB. He probably won’t win because he doesn’t put up the snazzy numbers that RG3 did/numbers that seem to win Heisman’s, and he plays for Kansas State. But he is so incredibly consistent. Landry Jones won’t win because he just hasn’t seemed consistent enough to me. I think a Heisman candidate shines when his team is losing/loses – and when OU lost to Baylor, TX Tech and OSU, he seemed to collapse into himself. But I could be incredibly wrong – his off-season could have been very productive and I wouldn’t know. So he could win.

As far as who wins the Big 12: I don’t know, I mostly think preseason predictions are a crapshoot anyway, because this is anyone’s game at this point. On any given day, any team can beat any other team. We can give preference to “Powerhouse” programs, but how many times do we see the mighty fall? Besides, I cheer for the underdog at all costs; I mean, I went to what is considered the “Little Brother” school in Oklahoma. Despite us having 50 National Championship, which is the 4^th most. That fun fact was for free.

6) Now let’s talk about conference realignment.  How do you feel about the addition of TCU and West Virginia in the Big12 this year? How well do you think Texas A&M and Missouri will fair in the new 14 team SEC?

I’m honestly excited to have TCU, mainly because we live so close to Ft. Worth that we can go watch Big 12 games! Yay! But I’ve always thought they did well in their conference and I’m excited to see what they bring to the table. Plus they defeated Boise State last season – this now makes me a huge fan. Honestly, West Virginia horrifies me. Their coach is our old offensive coordinator, so that’s kind of intimidating when someone knows your secrets. And their fans seem like hoodlums. Burning couches? I mean, really? Throwing snowballs with batteries in them? I mean, really? They realize they’re at a university, not a federal prison, right?

I hope TX A&M and Mizzou do well, because that looks good for the Big 12. Realistically? I think the first couple of years will be difficult for them. It’s an adjustment; especially an adjustment to being pilgrims in the unholy land of SEC. Those folks do not mess around. Football is the sport that counts in that conference, so they take it very seriously. I have my negative opinions about the SEC as a whole, but you can’t deny that their conference is nutso good at football. And neither of those teams have been nutso good at football recently.

7) Which Big12 team ranked in the top 25 will most likely end the season outside the top 25 and why? Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, West Virginia or Oklahoma?

At this point, I don’t know. I want to say Texas because they have struggled pretty badly these last couple of seasons. And of course I don’t want to say OSU, but that’s a definite possibility. I think Kansas State comes in as the underdog, big time. I love Kansas State and hope they do well. Who doesn’t love a 72-year-old coach who wears a 2002 Holiday Bowl jacket?

8) From the expanse of knowledge you now have from marrying a Hokie… If VT wins the ACC, what will be the biggest reason for their success? If they don’t, what will be the reason for their failure?

All of these opinions are all based off of watching the 2011 season, so I’m a little harsh. But I think your defense would be the reason why you win. I saw your defense as reasons you guys won so many games. See follow up question for more reasoning. . .

The biggest reason for failure – Your offense. Last season you guys went 3 & out a ton and tended to not be as productive as you would like your offense to be. There was one game, it was either v. Clemson or v. UNC that your defense would force turnovers or recover a fumble and then your offense would come on and just fart it away. As a football fan, that bothers the crap out of me. I hate it when OSU does it – that’s usually the point that I expletive and yell the most. You have to use what your defense gives you and be productive with that.

9) Finally, who will win the match-up this weekend in Arlington between No. 8 Michigan and No. 2 Alabama?

As someone who has such strong disdain for Alabama and a mediocre feeling for Michigan, can I just say I want the earth to open up and swallow the stadium?

Thanks for taking the time to answer these.  We will have to do it again sometime! Great work beautiful!

Again if you missed part 1: You can read it here. 

College Football Picks: Week 1

It’s the first week of the season and I have my first set of picks against the spread.  I don’t bet these picks, but I feel pretty confident about them and would if I had some spare coin.  I’ll star (*) 3 or 4 that I’m the most confident in.  I am also forcing myself to pick all top 25 matchups and any conference ACC or Big12 games. 

Tomorrow, I will be submitting a sweet new post that I am super excited about! I will be getting my incredibly witty wife, Mrs. dallas hokie, to share her thoughts on the upcoming College Football season.  You’ll see that she really knows what she is talking about.  I know guys; I totally hit it out of the park with this one.  In the meantime, check out her blog here.  

This post is Day 4 of college football preview week.  Check out Days 1-3 here:

1) Conference Race Projections
2) BSC Bowl Projections
3) Power Rankings

Enough with the intro, here are the picks!

Michigan State -7.0 over Boise State – Boise lost too much talent last year and while they have a decent team filling those spots, MSU is just too big up front on defense and will win big at home. 

* Navy +15.5 over Notre Dame – While Navy still loses this game, Notre Dame isn’t back and they don’t have a proven QB.  This first game will be rough for ND against a Navy team that has given them fits over the past few years. 

* Penn State -6.5 over Ohio – The betters have pushed this line down significantly over the week.  That is due to their lack of confidence in Penn State coming out of their off season probation mess.  I don’t think they are going to be that bad and will easily beat Ohio by a TD. 

Miami -2.5 over BC – Miami is bad… BC is terrible.  I don’t see BC winning a conference game this year.

* Clemson -3 over Auburn – I am really high on Clemson this year.  Sadly this means I think they beat VT later in the season, but it also means they beat Auburn in Atlanta. 

* Duke – 3 over FIU – Duke is back! Well, not really, but I think this is the year they finally put together some ACC wins.  They won’t beat anyone good, but will surely beat FIU by more than a FG.

Michigan +14 over Alabama – Alabama will win this game.  But, since I am high on Michigan this year, I’ll take them to make this game closer than expected.  Also, it should be noted that this line has risen 3 pts over the week, meaning that Vegas thinks Michigan will make it closer than 14 pts.  And Vegas is usually right…

Virginia Tech -7 over Georgia Tech – I will put out a full game preview this weekend and break down this game a little more.  But for now, I think VT comes out strong.  I think their offense shines and outscores GT.  I can see a score similar to last year.  Right now I’d say VT 31 GT 21.  That could change over the weekend though.  

BCS Projections

As promised from yesterday, here are my Preseason BCS Projections for this coming year.  

Keep in mind that again this year the Orange Bowl has the last pick of teams, so they will most definitely be stuck with the Big East champion.  Fiesta gets the first pick.  Keep a lookout tomorrow, for the first ever Dallas Hokie Power Rankings! 

BCS Title Game:  USC (Pac-12 Champ) over LSU (SEC Champ)

Rose Bowl: Oregon (At-Large) vs. Michigan (B1G Champ)

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (Big12 Champ vs. Florida State (At-Large)

Sugar Bowl: Georgia (At-Large) vs. Michigan State (At-Large)

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (ACC Champ) vs. South Florida (Big East Champ)

If you want to see my thoughts on these pics, check out yesterdays Conference Race Projections.

10 BCS Questions (Part 2)

To continue my post from earlier, here are the next 4 questions about the BCS.  These questions have to do with the other BCS games.

4)     What if Houston loses to Southern Miss?

This creates an interesting scenario for another team to jump into the BCS Bowl games.  Assuming all else goes according to plan, the teams listed below would be eligible for at-Large bids.  Also, it is important to remember that if Houston loses and TCU makes it into the top 16, they will earn a spot in a BCS game (likely they sugar). 

Stanford

Boise State

Oklahoma

Kansas State

Michigan

The Wisconsin/Michigan State loser may still be eligible and Baylor may jump into the mix of top 14 teams.  But for now, lets assume those five. 

The projection all along has been that the Sugar Bowl takes Michigan and that the Fiesta Bowl will take Stanford to play Oklahoma State.  The Sugar Bowl could take an 11-1 Boise State team, a 10-2 Kansas State team or a 9-3 Oklahoma team.  I’m not sure who the team of choice would be.  Boise State would bring the best ranking and record.  However, they would be far less of a draw for the audience.  Kansas State brings a better record than Oklahoma but doesn’t have as large of a fan base.  Oklahoma will be coming off of a loss and will be ranked lowest of the three.  Sadly, I think that the Sugar bowl will decide to match up the “traditional” powers and we will see a Michigan vs Oklahoma game in the Sugar Bowl.  Personally, I would love to see Boise State in this game.

If Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State were to lose this weekend, they would also be in line for discussion here.  I think both of those teams would be selected before any of the other options listed above (Oklahoma could be chosen over VT).  Oklahoma State would draw a huge local crowd and the bowls know that Virginia Tech travels extremely well. 

5)     What is the most interesting scenario?

I think that the most interesting outcome would be if Georgia beats LSU, Oklahoma State jumps to #2 in the rankings and Houston loses (but doesn’t fall out of the top 14).  The first consequence would mean that either LSU or Alabama would be completely left out of the BCS picture.  The Fiesta Bowl would then pick between Oklahoma and Kansas State.  After this the only other at-large candidates would be Stanford, Boise State, or Houston.  Michigan would not jump the two spots needed to become eligible since Georgia was victorious.  The Fiesta would take Stanford and I think the Sugar would choose WVU (assuming a Cincinnati victory on Saturday).  I think the Mountaineers would be a bigger draw and they would want to avoid a rematch between Boise State and Georgia.  The Orange Bowl would then match up the Hokies with Boise State!

6)     Can VT get an at-large bid if they lose?

VT would need the following to happen by my logic:

1)     Houston Loss

2)     LSU / Alabama NCG

3)     Oklahoma Loss and fall below 14

4)     Georgia loss to LSU

Here is how I arrived at that conclusion.

There will be 4 at-large spots available so the Hokies need to be the 4^th most attractive among the following teams:

Team	Ahead of VT by…	Ineligible or behind VT by…
2) Alabama	Remaining #2 or LSU win	Georgia win and OSU in NCG
3) Oklahoma State	Loss to Oklahoma	Win over Oklahoma (auto bid)
4) Stanford	Always (Top 4 team)	Never
6) Houston	Win over USM (auto bid)	Loss to USM
7) Boise State	Never (VT travels better)	Always
8) Arkansas	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
9) Oregon	Never	Win Conference or fall below 14
10) Oklahoma	Loss to OSU and remain in top 14	Win over OSU or falling below 14
11) Kansas State	OSU in NCG and chosen for Fiesta	OSU not in NCG or not chosen as replacement
12) South Carolina	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
13) Michigan State	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
14) Georgia	Winning SEC and LSU/Bama rematch in NCG	Losing to LSU and OSU in NCG
15) Wisconsin	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
16) Michigan	Jumping to 14 or higher	Not jumping into top 14 (Georgia win)

As you can see there are 8 teams that could be chosen before VT.  First of all, Stanford will be going to BCS bowl and will take one of the spots.  Secondly, either Alabama or Georgia will take another spot.  That leaves Houston, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Michigan and Georgia (only if we have an Alabama / LSU NCG spot and Georgia wins the SEC Championship).   Because of the rankings, one of Oklahoma, Michigan or Georgia will have to be included and will take up a third spot.  This leaves Houston, Kansas State and two of the following: Michigan, Oklahoma and Georgia.  VT would need for all of the teams left to be ineligible and thus the requirements listed above. 

I think this is accurate, if you find some scenario that I haven’t thought of where VT is in, that I haven’t thought of, LET ME KNOW!

7)     Are any teams guaranteed BCS spots?

Stanford is the only team guaranteed a spot in the BCS.  There will be at least 2 at-large spots available and Michigan (if eligible) is the only team that could be chosen over Stanford.

All of the other schools could be left out if situations don't go their way.

 

WHAT IF!? BCS Bowl Projections: Week 13

Here are my alternate BCS Bowl Projections:  First take a look at my SEC West Scenarios.  I really think that there are only a few ways in which we don’t have an all SEC West rematch.  I’ll outline the full results here for a few of those that I think are the most interesting.

Scenario 1

The only way in which anyone outside of the SEC West plays in the NCG is for Auburn to beat Alabama.  So let’s start off with that scenario.  I’ll also assume a victory of LSU over Arkansas.  All along I have been assuming a Houston loss as well. 

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Oklahoma State

Rose Bowl: #8 Oregon vs. #11 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #9 Kansas State vs. #4 Stanford

Sugar Bowl: #5 Alabama vs. #13 Michigan

Orange Bowl: #3 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

Scenario 2

I think one of the most interesting cases will be if Georgia wins the SEC, but we still have an all SEC championship game.  This is the only way in which we can have 3 teams from the same conference.   Here is how that would play out.  Let’s assume Alabama over Auburn and LSU over Arkansas.

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

Rose Bowl: #8 Oregon vs. #11 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #3 Oklahoma State vs. #5 Stanford

Sugar Bowl: #10 Georgia vs. #9 Kansas State

Orange Bowl: #4 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

Scenario 3

Here is my obligatory VT in the NCG scenario.  Auburn beats Bama, LSU wins the SEC, OU beats Oklahoma.   Just to note, I think that the Orange bowl would not choose Stanford for a second straight year and might choose the large fan base at Michigan to come down (Clemson is not eligible).

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Virginia Tech

Rose Bowl: #7 Oregon vs. #12 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #8 Oklahoma vs. #3 Stanford

Sugar Bowl: #4 Alabama vs. #9 Oklahoma State

Orange Bowl: #12 Michigan vs. #? WVU

Scenario 4

Here is my final scenario for the week.  What if VT loses to either UVA or Clemson? I think the still have a shot at an at-large.  They would probably need Michigan to lose to Ohio State just for good measure. Also of note, Houston would not need to lose.  Because the Fiesta Bowl choses first, they would not chose the higher ranked Big 12 school and choose between VT, Boise St, and Michigan St, leaving Houston to be chosen by the sugar bowl if necessary.  Yet, lets assume a Houston loss as well as normalcy in all other areas and here is how it would end up.

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

Rose Bowl: #7 Oregon vs. #12 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #8 Oklahoma State vs. #11 Virginia Tech  

Sugar Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. #8 Kansas State

Orange Bowl: #16 Clemson vs. #? WVU

The "Good" of the BCS

For all the hate that is out there for the Bowl System, it did produced one of the most exciting weekends in college football in quite some time.  The importance of each loss was magnified as 4 of the top 10 teams in the BCS lost, essentially ending any hope of a championship for Clemson, Oklahoma and Oregon.  We also frequently forget that the Bowl System also creates an incentive for teams with less wins to play for the fun of a bowl birth.  This weekend, NC State and Iowa State both clinched bowl birth with their upset wins and Baylor made a case for not having to play in the “New Era Pinstripe Bowl”!

I have been considering the chance of Virginia Tech playing in the National Championship game and while I don’t think they are anywhere close to being the second best team in the nation, I do think they would deserve to play in the game.  The truth of the matter is that in any system you aren’t guaranteed for the champion to be the best team in the nation.  A playoff makes us feel better about the champion; but were UConn and Butler the two best teams to play in the NCAA Basketball Championship Game last year? No, absolutely not.  But, they both deserved to be there.  This is because they performed within the confines of the system.

Currently, I can describe the system is as follows and if you perform according to the system you will get a chance to play for the National Championship, just as if you win 5 games in the NCAA Basketball tournament, you will get to play for the Championship. 

First, the conferences are tiered as such:

Tier 1: SEC, BIG12, BIG10 (a BIG10/12 team can occasionally move to tier 2)

Tier 2: PAC12, ACC (a PAC12 team can occasionally move to tier 1)

Tier 3: BIG EAST, MWC

Tier 4: C-USA, WAC, MAC, SUNBELT

Teams are then ranked as follows:

1. Undefeated Tier 1
2. Undefeated Tier 2
3. Undefeated Tier 3 and 1 loss Tier 
4. Undefeated Tier 4 and 1 loss Tier 2
5. 1 loss Tier 3 and 2 loss Tier 1
6. 1 loss Tier 4 and 2 loss Tier 2

Take a look at the rankings and you will see that this is usually the case.  The real arguments come into play when we need to rank between tiers.  But, if there is 1 team in "group 1" (LSU) and no one in "group 2" (Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma State all lose), Virginia Tech or Stanford will have earned the right to be in the discussion for that spot in the title game. 

Virginia Tech vs UNC Analysis

Virginia Tech won last night to move to 10-1 on the season and produce another 10 win season for Frank Beamer.  I’m happy for the team and really believe that they can go on to win against UVA and even beat Clemson in the ACC Championship.  However, last night’s game left a lot to be desired, especially by a 10 win team.

I had a theory during last night’s game that I wanted to research before allowing myself to believe it.  But after look back at VT’s games this year, I’m going to do it and blame our poor performances on the bad weather.  I’m cringing while typing that, because it feels so wrong to make that excuse.  But, of the 11 games that have been played by the Hokies this year, there have been 4 bad weather games (Ark St, Clemson, Duke, UNC) and 7 good weather games.  And, in all 4 of the bad weather games the Hokies have failed to score above their yearly average of 29.4 points.

They are actually averaging 16.75 points per game in these games, compared to 36.57 points on average in the other 7.  Now, this would make sense if the Hokies were able to hold their opponents to fewer points in bad weather games meaning the opposing offenses were struggling as well.  But, it seems that the defense is struggling just as much to play well in the poor conditions.   They are allowing 15.25 points in bad weather games and 17.86 points in those where the weather isn’t a factor.  To me, it seems that the weather isn’t affecting the other teams.  So why just VT?

Here is what I think.  The Hokies are actually not built to be a smash mouth football team.  It’s sad, but they can’t perform up to their high standards when they need to “out-athlete” other teams.  They do not have the stellar athletes (like UNC and Clemson) and are dependent upon being able to work through the schemes designed by the coaching staff.  However, during bad weather scenarios, the game comes down to who can out muscle the other team and VT simply can’t do that well. 

The reason for this is that the Hokies have consistently recruited the undersized guys who can play well in their schemes.  However, this doesn’t help win when matching up against the oversized offensive and defensive lines of UNC in the bitter cold.  Still, the Hokies came out on top because they found a way to make things happen.  So don’t get too down on the Hokies, just blame it on the weather and move on.  Yikes, I still hate to say that!

Just FYI, it’s supposed to be 57 and sunny in Charlottesville next weekend! Looks like another Coastal Division Title to me!

Alternate BCS Scenarios

Just for fun, here are a few BCS Scenarios to take a look at. 

--> UPDATE: I am assuming Houston loses to SMU, Tulsa or Southern Miss.  However, even if they don't, they won't play for the national championship unless every other team (except 1) has 2 losses.

SCENARIO 1

What if Oklahoma Beats Oklahoma State?

Post Championship Game Weekend Rankings

1)      LSU (12-0) (Wins against Ole Miss, Ark, Georgia)

2)      Alabama (11-1) (Wins against Georgia So, Auburn)

3)      Oregon (12-1) (Wins against USC, Oregon St, ASU)

4)      Oklahoma (11-1) (Win against Baylor, Iowa St, Oklahoma St)

5)      Oklahoma State (11-1) (Wins against, Iowa St, Loss to OU)

6)      Virginia Tech (12-1) (Wins against UNC, UVA, Clemson)

7)      Stanford (11-1) (Wins against Cal, Notre Dame)

8)      Arkansas (10-2) (Win against Miss St; Loss to LSU)   

9)      Boise St (11-1) (Wins against San Diego St, Wyoming, New Mexico)

10)    Kansas State (10-2) (Wins against Texas, Iowa St)

11)    Wisconsin (11-2) (Wins against Illinois, Penn St, Michigan St)

12)    Clemson (11-2) (Wins against NC State, South Caroline; Loss to VT)

13)    Nebraska (10-2) (Wins against Michigan, Iowa)

14)    Georgia (10-3) (Wins against Kentucky, GT; Loss to LSU)

15)    Michigan State (10-3) (Wins against Iowa, Indiana; Loss to Wisconsin)

16)    South Carolina (10-2) (Wins against Citadel, Loss to Clemson)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

ROSE BOWL: #11 Wisconsin vs. #3 Oregon

SUGAR BOWL: #5 Oklahoma State vs. #12 Clemson

FIESTA BOWL: #4 Oklahoma vs. #7 Stanford

ORANGE BOWL: #6 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

SCENARIO 2

What if Arkansas Beats LSU?

Post Championship Game Weekend Rankings

1)      Oklahoma State (12-0) (Wins against, Iowa St, OU)

2)      Alabama (12-1) (Wins against Georgia So, Auburn, Georgia)

3)      Oregon (12-1) (Wins against USC, Oregon St, ASU)

4)      Arkansas (11-1) (Win against Miss St, LSU)   

5)      LSU (11-1) (Wins against Ole Miss; Loss to Georgia)

6)      Virginia Tech (12-1) (Wins against UNC, UVA, Clemson)

7)      Stanford (11-1) (Wins against Cal, Notre Dame)

8)      Boise St (11-1) (Wins against San Diego St, Wyoming, New Mexico)

9)      Oklahoma (10-2) (Win against Baylor, Iowa St; Loss to Oklahoma St)

10)    Kansas State (10-2) (Wins against Texas, Iowa St)

11)    Wisconsin (11-2) (Wins against Illinois, Penn St, Michigan St)

12)    Clemson (11-2) (Wins against NC State, South Caroline; Loss to VT)

13)    Nebraska (10-2) (Wins against Michigan, Iowa)

14)    Georgia (10-3) (Wins against Kentucky, GT; Loss to LSU)

15)    Michigan State (10-3) (Wins against Iowa, Indiana; Loss to Wisconsin)

16)    South Carolina (10-2) (Wins against Citadel, Loss to Clemson)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #1 Oklahoma State vs. #2 Alabama

ROSE BOWL: #11 Wisconsin vs. #3 Oregon

SUGAR BOWL: #4 Arkansas vs. #12 Clemson

FIESTA BOWL: #9 Oklahoma vs. #7 Stanford

ORANGE BOWL: #6 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

I love this scenario!  Still, the key will be in seeing if LSU falls below Arkansas.  I think they would, since Arkansas would have just beaten them and the pollsters heavily penalize recent losses, putting Alabama in the SEC championship game.  The interesting thing is that Arkansas would automatically qualify if they finish #4, meaning that LSU would be left out!

SCENARIO 3

Now for a fun and very unlikely scenario! Here is what needs to happen in order for VT to make the NCG!

The first step in this process is that either Oklahoma State or LSU have to lose twice.  Oklahoma State has no chance of losing to Iowa State and LSU has no chance of losing to Ole Miss.  So the only chance is for LSU to lose to Arkansas, still make the SEC championship game and then lose again to Georgia.  In order for LSU to still make the championship game, Arkansas needs to lose to Miss State (who has probably faced the toughest schedule in the SEC thus far and could easily pull this off).  This will also serve to eliminate Arkansas from the picture. 

Additionally, Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma, Auburn needs to beat Alabama, and USC, Oregon State or Pac12 South Champion needs to beat Oregon.  Then VT needs to beat Clemson in the ACC Championship game.  In the end here is what the standings would most likely look like (I went through the changes in the standings week by week to figure them out; that is why Alabama is #5 even after losing to Auburn and Boise stayed back at #9)

1)      Oklahoma State (12-0) (Wins against, Iowa St, OU)

2)      Virginia Tech (12-1) (Wins against UNC, UVA, Clemson)

3)      Stanford (11-1) (Wins against Cal, Notre Dame)

4)      Oregon (11-2) (Wins against Oregon St, ASU; Loss to USC)

5)      Alabama (10-2) (Wins against Georgia So; Loss to Auburn)

6)      Oklahoma (10-2) (Win against Baylor, Iowa St, Loss to Oklahoma St)

7)      LSU (11-2) (Wins against Ole Miss; Losses to Arkansas, Georgia)

8)      Arkansas (10-2) (Win against LSU; Loss to Miss St.)

9)      Boise St (11-1) (Wins against San Diego St, Wyoming, New Mexico)

10)    Georgia (11-2) (Wins against Kentucky, GT, LSU)

11)    Kansas State (10-2) (Wins against Texas, Iowa St)

12)    Wisconsin (11-2) (Wins against Illinois, Penn St, Michigan St)

13)    Clemson (11-2) (Wins against NC State, South Caroline; Loss to VT)

14)    Nebraska (10-2) (Wins against Michigan, Iowa)

15)    Michigan State (10-3) (Wins against Iowa, Indiana; Loss to Wisconsin)

16)    South Carolina (10-2) (Wins against Citadel, Loss to Clemson)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #1 Oklahoma State vs. #2 Virginia Tech

ROSE BOWL: #12 Wisconsin vs. #4 Oregon

SUGAR BOWL: #10 Georgia vs. #3 Stanford  

FIESTA BOWL: #6 Oklahoma vs. #5 Alabama

ORANGE BOWL: #13 Clemson vs. #? WVU

The orange bowl could choose Alabama here and very well might, due to how low ranked Clemson would be.  If that did happen, I think that Clemson would be chosen by the Sugar bowl with Stanford in the Fiesta.