10 BCS Questions (Part 2)

To continue my post from earlier, here are the next 4 questions about the BCS.  These questions have to do with the other BCS games.

4)     What if Houston loses to Southern Miss?

This creates an interesting scenario for another team to jump into the BCS Bowl games.  Assuming all else goes according to plan, the teams listed below would be eligible for at-Large bids.  Also, it is important to remember that if Houston loses and TCU makes it into the top 16, they will earn a spot in a BCS game (likely they sugar). 

Stanford

Boise State

Oklahoma

Kansas State

Michigan

The Wisconsin/Michigan State loser may still be eligible and Baylor may jump into the mix of top 14 teams.  But for now, lets assume those five. 

The projection all along has been that the Sugar Bowl takes Michigan and that the Fiesta Bowl will take Stanford to play Oklahoma State.  The Sugar Bowl could take an 11-1 Boise State team, a 10-2 Kansas State team or a 9-3 Oklahoma team.  I’m not sure who the team of choice would be.  Boise State would bring the best ranking and record.  However, they would be far less of a draw for the audience.  Kansas State brings a better record than Oklahoma but doesn’t have as large of a fan base.  Oklahoma will be coming off of a loss and will be ranked lowest of the three.  Sadly, I think that the Sugar bowl will decide to match up the “traditional” powers and we will see a Michigan vs Oklahoma game in the Sugar Bowl.  Personally, I would love to see Boise State in this game.

If Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State were to lose this weekend, they would also be in line for discussion here.  I think both of those teams would be selected before any of the other options listed above (Oklahoma could be chosen over VT).  Oklahoma State would draw a huge local crowd and the bowls know that Virginia Tech travels extremely well. 

5)     What is the most interesting scenario?

I think that the most interesting outcome would be if Georgia beats LSU, Oklahoma State jumps to #2 in the rankings and Houston loses (but doesn’t fall out of the top 14).  The first consequence would mean that either LSU or Alabama would be completely left out of the BCS picture.  The Fiesta Bowl would then pick between Oklahoma and Kansas State.  After this the only other at-large candidates would be Stanford, Boise State, or Houston.  Michigan would not jump the two spots needed to become eligible since Georgia was victorious.  The Fiesta would take Stanford and I think the Sugar would choose WVU (assuming a Cincinnati victory on Saturday).  I think the Mountaineers would be a bigger draw and they would want to avoid a rematch between Boise State and Georgia.  The Orange Bowl would then match up the Hokies with Boise State!

6)     Can VT get an at-large bid if they lose?

VT would need the following to happen by my logic:

1)     Houston Loss

2)     LSU / Alabama NCG

3)     Oklahoma Loss and fall below 14

4)     Georgia loss to LSU

Here is how I arrived at that conclusion.

There will be 4 at-large spots available so the Hokies need to be the 4^th most attractive among the following teams:

Team	Ahead of VT by…	Ineligible or behind VT by…
2) Alabama	Remaining #2 or LSU win	Georgia win and OSU in NCG
3) Oklahoma State	Loss to Oklahoma	Win over Oklahoma (auto bid)
4) Stanford	Always (Top 4 team)	Never
6) Houston	Win over USM (auto bid)	Loss to USM
7) Boise State	Never (VT travels better)	Always
8) Arkansas	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
9) Oregon	Never	Win Conference or fall below 14
10) Oklahoma	Loss to OSU and remain in top 14	Win over OSU or falling below 14
11) Kansas State	OSU in NCG and chosen for Fiesta	OSU not in NCG or not chosen as replacement
12) South Carolina	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
13) Michigan State	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
14) Georgia	Winning SEC and LSU/Bama rematch in NCG	Losing to LSU and OSU in NCG
15) Wisconsin	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
16) Michigan	Jumping to 14 or higher	Not jumping into top 14 (Georgia win)

As you can see there are 8 teams that could be chosen before VT.  First of all, Stanford will be going to BCS bowl and will take one of the spots.  Secondly, either Alabama or Georgia will take another spot.  That leaves Houston, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Michigan and Georgia (only if we have an Alabama / LSU NCG spot and Georgia wins the SEC Championship).   Because of the rankings, one of Oklahoma, Michigan or Georgia will have to be included and will take up a third spot.  This leaves Houston, Kansas State and two of the following: Michigan, Oklahoma and Georgia.  VT would need for all of the teams left to be ineligible and thus the requirements listed above. 

I think this is accurate, if you find some scenario that I haven’t thought of where VT is in, that I haven’t thought of, LET ME KNOW!

7)     Are any teams guaranteed BCS spots?

Stanford is the only team guaranteed a spot in the BCS.  There will be at least 2 at-large spots available and Michigan (if eligible) is the only team that could be chosen over Stanford.

All of the other schools could be left out if situations don't go their way.