SEC West Scenarios

I’ve gone through all the scenarios and have decided that the only way that we avoid a rematch in the NCG is for Auburn to beat Alabama.  So go out there WAR EAGLE it up this weekend!  (Arkansas would also need to lose a game, but they could lose to either LSU or Georgia).

Here is a quick handicap of different NCG scenarios and the SEC west:

LSU vs non-SEC - Auburn over Bama & LSU over Ark or UGA over Ark

LSU vs Arkansas - Auburn over Bama & Ark over LSU & Ark over UGA 

                           OR Bama over Auburn & Ark over LSU & UGA over Bama

LSU vs Alabama - Bama over Auburn & LSU over Ark

Alabama vs Arkansas - Bama over Auburn & Bama over UGA & Ark over LSU 

Here are more details on how I came to these conclusions.

LSU:

If LSU beats Arkansas they will go to the SEC championship game.  I am convinced this will essentially clinch a berth in the NCG even if they go on to lose to Georgia.  An interesting note about this is that this could lead to there being 3 SEC schools in the BCS (the one caveat to break the 2 per league rule is that if two non-champions are ranked 1-2).  I can’t believe that this would be a possibility but it’s something to keep an eye on.  If Auburn beats Alabama, LSU will play a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

If LSU loses to Arkansas they will most likely fall below Alabama and Arkansas (voters put higher value on late season losses – that’s just the way it is).  Alabama would win the tiebreaker and head to the SEC championship game (assuming a victory over Auburn).  A win by Alabama in that game would mean an Alabama /Arkansas rematch in the NCG and a win by Georgia would mean an LSU / Arkansas rematch (again 3 BCS teams in the NCG).  If Alabama were to lose to Auburn, Arkansas would go to the SEC championship game, where a win by Arkansas would mean an LSU / Arkansas rematch.  A win by Georgia and we would avoid a rematch and LSU would a non-SEC opponent.

LSU can clinch a berth in the NCG with a win over Arkansas.  They can also earn a berth with a loss and an Auburn win or a Georgia win (in the SEC championship).   The only BCS bowl that LSU can go to is the National Championship.  

Alabama:

If Alabama beats Auburn and LSU beats Arkansas they will clinch a berth in the NCG against LSU.  However, if Arkansas beats LSU, Alabama would need to beat Georgia in order to go the NCG.  A win in that came would mean a rematch with Arkansas.  A loss in that game would mean an Arkansas / LSU rematch.

If Alabama loses to Auburn they will fall out of National Title contention (unless OSU, VT and Stanford all lose). 

Alabama will clinch a berth in the NCG with a win over Auburn and an LSU win; or, an Arkansas win and a win over Georgia.  Alabama would be a popular choice for the Sugar bowl if there isn’t an all SEC NCG. 

Arkansas

If Arkansas beats LSU and Alabama beats Auburn, Arkansas will clinch a berth in the NCG.  They would play Alabama if Alabama beat Georgia and would play LSU if Georgia beats Alabama.  If Auburn loses to Alabama, Arkansas would need to beat Georgia to be in the NCG.  If they lost to Georgia, LSU would face a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

If Arkansas loses to LSU they will fall out of National Title contention and most likely out of a BCS bowl game. 

Arkansas can clinch a berth in the NCG with a win and an Alabama win; or, with an Auburn win and then beating Georgia in the SEC championship.  Arkansas will most likely not have a chance to attend another BCS bowl game because Alabama would be the more attractive option.