Stop the Excuses: VT vs Miami Reaction

Last night I posed the question, “What really is the problem with this year’s VT football team?” I wasn't sure where do go with it.  Is it the Offensive Scheme? Offensive Play Calling? Execution? Head Coach? After sleeping on it, my theory is that the program has been infiltrated by a non-creative stagnant leadership.  We have lost our edge as a program.  We are weak across the board, from the Athletic Director to long snapper (I miss Collin Carroll).  Here is my proof.  Check out these road and neutral site turnover stats from cfbstats.com (the site only goes back to 2007, so that’s how far I went back):

VT Road/Neutral Turnover Ratio vs National Average

I know these numbers might seem like a bunch of mumbo jumbo, but here is a quick explanation so stay with me.  Over the past 5 years, the Hokies have been better than average on the road or on neutral fields when it comes to turnover margin.  Even more, every year that they have finished with a top 15% margin (greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean), they have won the ACC.  This year, the Hokies are on the verge of finishing the season in the bottom 3% of all FBS college football.  They are currently #121 of 124 teams, and this is 2 years away from leading all teams in this category in 2010.  And you can’t even come close to saying the teams we played this year are anywhere near as good as the teams we played away from home in 2010.  Here is the comparison:

2010: #3 Boise State, Boston College,#23 NC State, North Carolina, #21 Miami, #20 Florida State, #5 Stanford

2012: Pittsburg, Cincinnati, North Carolina, #14 Clemson, Miami

So what is the difference? How can we go from kicking butt on the road, to falling so flat? We had won 12 straight true road games from 2009 through the Pitt game this year!

Like I said above, my premise is that the program has lost its edge.  And I believe whole heartedly that this is caused by faulty leadership.  True leadership creates a team culture where mistakes are limited and people are held accountable for their mistakes.  A leader also steps up their game in hostile environments and clutch situations.  We have NONE of this! Where has it gone?  

I have never heard more excuses for mistakes in my life.  Someone (anyone!) please stand up and say, “this was my fault, I take responsibility.”  Then, lead this team forward.  STOP THE EXCUSES! Has Beamer stopped leading well, what is Bud doing? We all know O'Cainspring can't cut it.  Is it the players? Did Tyrod, Willson, Willams and Randle make up for the faults of the coaching staff over the past 5 years?  I sure think so... 

Notre Dame to the ACC

This morning it was announced that Notre Dame is going to join the ACC in all “non-football sports”, or should I say all money sucking sports plus basketball.  Anyways, joking aside, I think this is a good move for the ACC and here are 4 reasons why.

1) Any association with Notre Dame is good publicity.  Notre Dame is one of the most respected and admired schools in the country.  Before you go all crazy on me hear me out.  This isn’t because they are the best school or have the best athletic department or are particularly relevant recently; it’s actually just a simple issue of supply and demand? Any chance you remember learning that in college? Well, that is what is happening here.  Notre Dame has been and will continue to be the most demanded school in college sports solely because no one can have them. They're football program is "not for sale". And, this has caused their value to soar through the roof.  Today, that value remains high because no conference (including the ACC) has yet to “own” their football program.  But, they do have their other sports and 50 million+ buyout.  The ACC will have the Notre Dame association for a long time and Notre Dame will continue to be valuable making the ACC more valuable. 

2) The addition of Notre Dame will bring in more money.  I saw it written today that the ACC expects each team to earn an extra 1-2 million dollars by adding the Irish.  I’d do that in a heartbeat! I would bet that money could be well used in funding a few cool new facilities around campus or to pay a top level coach.  More money is always good and will be good for the schools in the ACC.

3) The ACC will get to play Notre Dame five times each year in football.  A game with Notre Dame is a huge coup for any school and will draw a lot of media attention to the ACC.  I do realize that this is really only one more game per year for the ACC, but the best part is that teams like Clemson, Florida State, and Virginia Tech will get a chance to play another nationally televised game.  Also, many lesser teams will have a chance to host the Irish, dramatically increasing average ticket sales for non-conference games. 

4) Non-football sports will be better.  Notre Dame has been traditionally good in many sports, particularly men’s and women’s basketball, women’s soccer and lacrosse.  The addition of another quality opponent will both help current ACC schools to perform better as well as increase the public perception of the ACC overall.

Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech Reaction

I don’t understand how a team can leave such a sweet taste in my mouth, while looking so terrible.  But, for the first time that I can remember, Virginia Tech didn’t choke in the clutch! And because of that, I have reason for optimism as we head into week 2.  While there are so many things to be concerned of moving forward, I am extremely excited about this team and ready to see us bounce back extremely well as the season progresses. 

In the spirit of irrational optimism, here are some of the things that impressed me about this Hokies team. 

(1) The entire defense looked incredible.  If you look back at the game, the first TD was scored on a short field.  While I would have loved to see them held a FG there, I give the D a pass here.  The FG drive was against a tired defense which had been on the field for over 10 minutes of the 3^rd quarter.  But they stiffened up when it mattered and kept them out of the end zone.  Finally, the last TD drive was somewhat of a concern and should have been stopped several times.  Even still, I’m impressed and look forward to how good this D can be.  They held the #2 rushing offense from last year to under 200 yards! That's incredibly done!

(2) Special teams looked promising.  I know there was a missed FG and a botched snap/catch/punt.  However, other than that, there were no mistakes.  I have full faith in Journell and think that Hughes might be the best punter around VT in a while.   Remember the 19 yd. punts last year and having a WR handle punting duties? Yeah… this is better. 

(3) Discipline.  There were very few penalties in the game, no turnovers, very few stupid mistakes, and several clutch performances (Fullers, Thomas, Journell).  This is so un-Hokie-like and a good sign moving forward.

(4) The running game looks promising.  I know we had less than 100 yds rushing, but we would have had 22 more yards without the botched punt.  I think Logan will put together a nice season running the ball and Michael Holmes / JC Coleman looked like they belonged in the backfield.  Coleman looked like a young David Wilson / change of pace back and Holmes looks like he can handle the bulk of the duties and run between the tackles. 

Go ahead, tell me I’m being way to optimistic, I don’t care!  This is our year!

Check out my reaction to my picks here.  

Football is Back: TV Deals and Conference Expansion

Well, it’s officially football season. I’m not sure when, or even why, the switch was flipped back on, but today just seemed right.  I think all this talk about new TV deals and Logan Thomas being highlighted on ESPN draft boards has gotten me all excited.  So, I am doing it, “It’s May 9^th, 2012 and its FOOTBALL SEASON!!!”


Before I get into my thoughts on the TV deals.  Here are some fun videos:

Today the ACC announced that it accepted a new TV deal that is going to net each team about $17M/year.  To compare, this is currently the fifth best deal among NCAA conferences.  The ACC remains behind the SEC, BIG10, PAC12 and believe it or not, the almost dead BIG12.  And it’s not just a minor amount.   It is looking like both the SEC and PAC12 will have payouts of over $30M for each school, with the BIG10 not far behind. 

I don’t see why everyone in ACC country is so happy with this new deal! I mean West Virginia just bolted out of the Big LEast and landed in the Big12 after being spurned by that ACC.  But now, they will make more money than if they were in the ACC.  It seems that their “low academic” standards actually helped them out a little with this one. 

I have come to the conclusion that the ACC is this years “dead” league.  Last year it looked as if the BIG12 was on the verge of collapse, but this year it looks as if the tables have turned.  The ACC hasn’t added any depth to the league since adding VT.  But even that expansion was marred with the addition of Boston College and the under achieving U.  It is time for teams to recognize and start the bolting progress.  FSU and Clemson are being sought after by the BIG12 (and it seems that all the BIG12 folks think this new ACC deal might be the final straw) and VT would be a great fit in SEC. 

I know everyone thought that we were going to be stable for a few years, but that won’t happen until we get to four 16 team conferences.  It’s about the money, so why not take it when you get the chance.  For teams like FSU, Clemson and VT; it’s out there… they just need to go get it.  

10 BCS Questions (Part 3)

If you've haven't already read questions 1-7, check them out here:

8)     What would a 12-team playoff look like!?

Here is what I would love to see as a playoff system for the current Bowl Subdivision (former 1-A). 

First, a selection committee (that heavily relied upon the BCS rankings) would select the top 4 teams.  They would be given a bye   Also, these seeds will only be given to teams that have won their conference.  This is because, in most conferences, they would already be required to play an extra game and I think conference champions should be rewarded.  This year the top 4 seeds would be:

1 seed: LSU

2 seed: Oklahoma State

3 seed: Virginia Tech

4 seed: Oregon

Then, the committee would rank the next 8 schools with the higher seed hosting the first round game.  Also, all auto tie-ins will still be awarded and there will be a three team per conference limit with a requirement that schools from the same conference will not meet until the semifinals.

5 seed: Alabama

6 seed: Stanford

7 seed: Arkansas

8 seed: Houston

9 seed: Boise State

10 seed: Wisconsin

11 seed: Kansas State

12 seed: West Virginia

With the games:

West Virginia @ Alabama (6:00 PM ET)

Kansas State @ Stanford (9:30 PM ET)

Wisconsin @ Arkansas (3:30 PM ET)

Boise State @ Houston (12:00PM ET)

Traditional bowl affiliations would be used for the next playoff games (if PAC-10 and BIG-10 schools are chosen, the higher seed will play in the Rose Bowl) with the losers of the opening round games being matched up in the Capital One Bowl and Cotton Bowl.  We would see:

Alabama/WVU vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl

Stanford/Kansas State vs Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl

Arkansas/Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl

Houston/Boise State vs LSU in the Sugar Bowl

After the bowls the teams would be reseeded according to original ranking.  The lowest seed remaining will play at the home of the highest seed remaining.  The other two schools will play at the home of the higher seed

Lowest Seed @ Highest Seed

Lower Seed @ Higher Seed

The championship game would then be held the following week at a pre-determined rotating site among the now "6 BCS Bowls". 

How’s that sound!? Let me know your thoughts...

9)     What should be the biggest complaint about the BCS?

The voters don’t watch all the games and aren’t instructed on how to vote properly.  The voters try to be objetive!

The computers are the tool used to measure objectivity.  They are set to determine, based on mere wins and losses, who is the best team. 

Now, even computers have a bias.  The guys who right the programs have to assign value to wins and losses and how much strength of schedule effects the ranking.  I would love to see how some of the ranking are determined but they aren't published! To solve this I would also like to see another six computers added to the equation and require the voters to publish their built in biases.  

Anyways, back to the original preface.  My point is that the voters should vote on which team looks the best! Which team is playing the best right now and which team would beat another team in their opinion.  The voters should not be worrying about the so-called “body of work”! That is for the computers to mess with.  They are paid to either coach, watch or write about sports.  They know when a team “looks” good and “looks” bad. 

Vote on that and quit trying to do what the computers are there to do!

10)       What could keep LSU AND Alabama out of the NCG?

So, what if come Sunday morning we hear that the NCAA has been investigating both LSU and Alabama this entire year and that they will be handing down significant sanctions upon both schools.   We come to find out that both schools have been providing significant benefits to players and will be put on post-season restrictions for this year and next year.  

The world would rejoice and we would probably see Oklahoma State vs either Virginia Tech or Stanford in the National Championship Game! Georgia and Arkansas will both go to BCS games and everyone would be so much happier with life and the BCS! 

The first round games would be held the week after the conference championship games. 

10 BCS Questions (Part 2)

To continue my post from earlier, here are the next 4 questions about the BCS.  These questions have to do with the other BCS games.

4)     What if Houston loses to Southern Miss?

This creates an interesting scenario for another team to jump into the BCS Bowl games.  Assuming all else goes according to plan, the teams listed below would be eligible for at-Large bids.  Also, it is important to remember that if Houston loses and TCU makes it into the top 16, they will earn a spot in a BCS game (likely they sugar). 

Stanford

Boise State

Oklahoma

Kansas State

Michigan

The Wisconsin/Michigan State loser may still be eligible and Baylor may jump into the mix of top 14 teams.  But for now, lets assume those five. 

The projection all along has been that the Sugar Bowl takes Michigan and that the Fiesta Bowl will take Stanford to play Oklahoma State.  The Sugar Bowl could take an 11-1 Boise State team, a 10-2 Kansas State team or a 9-3 Oklahoma team.  I’m not sure who the team of choice would be.  Boise State would bring the best ranking and record.  However, they would be far less of a draw for the audience.  Kansas State brings a better record than Oklahoma but doesn’t have as large of a fan base.  Oklahoma will be coming off of a loss and will be ranked lowest of the three.  Sadly, I think that the Sugar bowl will decide to match up the “traditional” powers and we will see a Michigan vs Oklahoma game in the Sugar Bowl.  Personally, I would love to see Boise State in this game.

If Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State were to lose this weekend, they would also be in line for discussion here.  I think both of those teams would be selected before any of the other options listed above (Oklahoma could be chosen over VT).  Oklahoma State would draw a huge local crowd and the bowls know that Virginia Tech travels extremely well. 

5)     What is the most interesting scenario?

I think that the most interesting outcome would be if Georgia beats LSU, Oklahoma State jumps to #2 in the rankings and Houston loses (but doesn’t fall out of the top 14).  The first consequence would mean that either LSU or Alabama would be completely left out of the BCS picture.  The Fiesta Bowl would then pick between Oklahoma and Kansas State.  After this the only other at-large candidates would be Stanford, Boise State, or Houston.  Michigan would not jump the two spots needed to become eligible since Georgia was victorious.  The Fiesta would take Stanford and I think the Sugar would choose WVU (assuming a Cincinnati victory on Saturday).  I think the Mountaineers would be a bigger draw and they would want to avoid a rematch between Boise State and Georgia.  The Orange Bowl would then match up the Hokies with Boise State!

6)     Can VT get an at-large bid if they lose?

VT would need the following to happen by my logic:

1)     Houston Loss

2)     LSU / Alabama NCG

3)     Oklahoma Loss and fall below 14

4)     Georgia loss to LSU

Here is how I arrived at that conclusion.

There will be 4 at-large spots available so the Hokies need to be the 4^th most attractive among the following teams:

Team	Ahead of VT by…	Ineligible or behind VT by…
2) Alabama	Remaining #2 or LSU win	Georgia win and OSU in NCG
3) Oklahoma State	Loss to Oklahoma	Win over Oklahoma (auto bid)
4) Stanford	Always (Top 4 team)	Never
6) Houston	Win over USM (auto bid)	Loss to USM
7) Boise State	Never (VT travels better)	Always
8) Arkansas	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
9) Oregon	Never	Win Conference or fall below 14
10) Oklahoma	Loss to OSU and remain in top 14	Win over OSU or falling below 14
11) Kansas State	OSU in NCG and chosen for Fiesta	OSU not in NCG or not chosen as replacement
12) South Carolina	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
13) Michigan State	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
14) Georgia	Winning SEC and LSU/Bama rematch in NCG	Losing to LSU and OSU in NCG
15) Wisconsin	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
16) Michigan	Jumping to 14 or higher	Not jumping into top 14 (Georgia win)

As you can see there are 8 teams that could be chosen before VT.  First of all, Stanford will be going to BCS bowl and will take one of the spots.  Secondly, either Alabama or Georgia will take another spot.  That leaves Houston, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Michigan and Georgia (only if we have an Alabama / LSU NCG spot and Georgia wins the SEC Championship).   Because of the rankings, one of Oklahoma, Michigan or Georgia will have to be included and will take up a third spot.  This leaves Houston, Kansas State and two of the following: Michigan, Oklahoma and Georgia.  VT would need for all of the teams left to be ineligible and thus the requirements listed above. 

I think this is accurate, if you find some scenario that I haven’t thought of where VT is in, that I haven’t thought of, LET ME KNOW!

7)     Are any teams guaranteed BCS spots?

Stanford is the only team guaranteed a spot in the BCS.  There will be at least 2 at-large spots available and Michigan (if eligible) is the only team that could be chosen over Stanford.

All of the other schools could be left out if situations don't go their way.

 

10 BCS Questions (Part 1)

We all know by this point what should happen in the BCS come Sunday night.  Here are a few sites that are all projecting the same matchups in the five BCS Bowl games. 

ESPN: http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls

CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

YAHOO: http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1297268&PT=4&PR=2

However, I've come up with 10 questions that may get you thinking otherwise.   

The first three are listed here with more to come!

1)     What if Oklahoma State Destroys Oklahoma?

This is the burning question among most of the “experts” out there.  Would Oklahoma State warrant jumping Alabama in the BCS Standings with an impressive win over Oklahoma?  With this win I would expect OSU to be the #2 ranked team in all the computers.   This would happen because Oklahoma is currently the 5^th ranked team in the computers and a victory over them would sure help the ranking. 

With being ranked #2 in the computers, OSU would just need for about 1/3 of the voters to select them ahead of Alabama on their ballots.   I am really convinced that this is a possibility.  Ten percent of the voters already don’t have Alabama as the number #2 team and I think a big win by the Cowboys and the desire for there to not be a rematch could increase to the needed number of around 33%. 

Still, it is important to note that Oklahoma State would also need to jump Stanford and Virginia Tech.   If they remain behind those two teams in some of the polls, I would say that they would need to be ranked #2 in upwards of 50% of the polls. 

2)     What if LSU loses a close one to Georgia?

While I think this is very unlikely, it could happen; and, remember that Georgia is probably the 3^rd best team in the SEC right now.  The biggest impact of this result would be in the computers.  The most likely scenario would be for OSU to jump both LSU and Alabama and get the #1 computer vote (assuming a win over Oklahoma).  LSU would most likely fall to #2 and Alabama would fall to #3.  This would make it much easier for OSU to jump Alabama and would just require a little love from the voters.

The bigger question here is how would the voters end up voting? Who would receive the #1 votes in the polls? Would Oklahoma State be worthy of any #1 votes? If I were a voter, I would have a hard time ranking Alabama ahead of LSU because of the fact that LSU was required to play an extra game just because they beat Alabama.  I would also have a hard time keeping LSU at #1.  I think a loss to Georgia would expose both LSU and Alabama and should make some of the voters think about that #1 spot.  In the end I don’t think the polls would chance much and would hope that the voters would not punish LSU with a close loss to a good team. 

I would expect LSU to remain #1 in the polls and be followed by Alabama.  Stanford, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State would be very closely bunched at #s 3, 4 and 5.  Because of the way the BCS works, being ranked ahead of another team doesn’t really matter if you are close in votes.  

It would come down to the computers and like I said above Oklahoma State would be ranked #1 and would have a good chance of jumping into the National Title Game. I think this is the best case to avoid a rematch.

3)     What if Oklahoma State loses?

This would be an interesting scenario.  I don’t think that Stanford would warrant being voted ahead of Alabama because they would not have won their conference and I don’t think Virginia Tech could beat out Alabama in the computers.  In the end I think this means we are most certainly headed for a rematch. 

Even if LSU were to lose to Georgia, I don't think it would matter.  LSU and Alabama would maintain their ranking at #1 and #2 and Stanford and Virginia Tech will not have the computer ranking numbers to jump either of the SEC schools. 

Heisman: Week 13

If I had a vote for the Heisman trophy and had to vote today, here is how I would vote:

1)      Robert Griffin

2)      Trent Richardson

3)      Montee Ball

4)      Andrew Luck

5)      Case Keenum

Before you get completely up in arms, I’ve outlined my thinking below.  But, I would love to hear your thoughts on this, especially if you disagree. 

First of all, here is the list of players that I think should be considered. Sorted by team ranking:

Trent Richardson

Brandon Weeden

Justin Blackmon

David Wilson

Logan Thomas

Andrew Luck

Kellen Moore

Case Keenum

Landry Jones

LaMicheal James

Colin Klein

Aaron Murray

Montee Ball

Russell Wilson

Robert Griffin

Matt Barkley

Now I’ll divide them into QB and non-QB for discussion purposes.  First let’s discuss the non-QB.

Trent Richardson – 1380 yds, 5.8 yds/attempt, 20 TDs; 2 TD rec; 8 100-yard games; 322 rec yards

Justin Blackmon – 1241 yds, 12 yds/reception, 15 TDs; scored a TD in each of teams last 10 games

David Wilson – 1442 yds, 6.2 yds/attempt, 7 TDs; 1 TD rec; 9 100-yard games; never rushed for below 82 yards

LaMicheal James – 1284 yds, 7.4 yds/attempt, 13 TDs; 1 TD rec; 3 200-yard games

Montee Ball – 1466 yds, 6.6 yds/attempt, 25 TDs; 5 TD rec; 2 200-yard games; scored at least 2 TDs in every game

Taking into account the stats of these players, their competition and support from other teammates, I rank them as follows:

1)      Trent Richardson

2)      Montee Ball

3)      David Wilson

4)      Justin Blackmon

5)      LaMicheal James

I have gone back and forth over whether Richardson should be ahead of Ball or not.  The only distinguishing mark for me is that Alabama is ranked number two in the country.  Other than that, the pair seems to be very equally deserving.  Wilson is third because of his 9 100-yard games and Blackmon comes in 4^th because of being able to score so consistently over the past 10 games. 

Now on to the QBs

Brandon Weeden – 4111 yds, 73 comp%, 34 TDs, 12 ints, 162.2 rating; 4 400-yd passing games and 1 500-yd game

Logan Thomas – 2338 yds, 60.4 comp%, 16 TDs, 7 ints, 139.3 rating; 9 TDs rushing; 20 total TDs and 2 picks in last 6 games

Andrew Luck – 2937 yds, 70.3 comp%, 31 TDs, 8 ints, 167.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; thrown at least 2 TDs in every game this year

Kellen Moore– 2915 yds, 73.8 comp%, 35 TDs, 6 ints, 177.5 rating; 8 games with 3 or more TD passes, at least 2 TDs in every game

Case Keenum – 4269 yds, 73.4 comp%, 38 TDs, 3 ints, 186.9 rating; 3 TDs rushing; until last week, never had a game rating below 150, 9 TDs in one game

Landry Jones – 3796 yds, 65.3 comp%, 28 TDs, 10 ints, 153.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 3 5-TD games

Colin Klein – 1587 yds, 58.5 comp%, 11 TDs, 5 ints, 126.1 rating; 25 TDs rushing; 1013 yds rushing; 23 total TDs and 2 picks in last 6 games

Aaron Murray – 2446 yds, 60.6 comp%, 28 TDs, 8 ints, 153.3 rating; 2 TDs rushing; led team to 9 straight victories;

Russell Wilson – 2506 yds. 73.6 comp%, 26 TDs, 3 ints, 199.3 rating; 5 TDs rushing; lowest game rating is 159.8 with 5 games over 200

Robert Griffin– 3572 yds, 72.9 comp%, 33 TDs, 5 ints, 191.7 rating; 5 TDs rushing; thrown for 3 TDs in 8 games

Matt Barkley – 3105 yds, 67.6 comp%, 33 TDs, 5 ints, 155.6 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 6-TD game

The difficulty with ranking the QBs is that you have to muddle through all these stats and figure out who has had the biggest impact on their team’s performance and carried the stats to warrant being the nation’s best player.  All of that then has to run against how good the team is and how good of competition they have played. 

1)      Robert Griffin

2)      Andrew Luck

3)      Case Keenum

4)      Colin Klein

5)      Brandon Weeden

6)      Russell Wilson

7)      Kellen Moore

8)      Matt Barkley

9)      Logan Thomas

10)    Aaron Murray

11)    Landry Jones

The decision to place Robert Griffin as the number one choice was highly motivated by his performance against Oklahoma on Saturday night.  However, note that he also has the stats to back-up being placed here.  I think that Andrew Luck and Case Keenum both seem to be doing an excellent job with a sub-par supporting cast.  Luck gets the nod because of better competition.  Klein is tied for the national lead in rushing TDs.  He has fallen this far because he has pretty awful QB stats, but wins out over Weeden to to Weeden’s interception count and the loss to Iowa State.  Russell Wilson is a model of consistency and has performed well the entire year.  However, he has been aided by a limited passing game and the efficiency of Montee Ball running the ball.  Logan Thomas didn’t come in last because of his recent superb performances and my natural bias!

WHAT IF!? BCS Bowl Projections: Week 13

Here are my alternate BCS Bowl Projections:  First take a look at my SEC West Scenarios.  I really think that there are only a few ways in which we don’t have an all SEC West rematch.  I’ll outline the full results here for a few of those that I think are the most interesting.

Scenario 1

The only way in which anyone outside of the SEC West plays in the NCG is for Auburn to beat Alabama.  So let’s start off with that scenario.  I’ll also assume a victory of LSU over Arkansas.  All along I have been assuming a Houston loss as well. 

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Oklahoma State

Rose Bowl: #8 Oregon vs. #11 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #9 Kansas State vs. #4 Stanford

Sugar Bowl: #5 Alabama vs. #13 Michigan

Orange Bowl: #3 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

Scenario 2

I think one of the most interesting cases will be if Georgia wins the SEC, but we still have an all SEC championship game.  This is the only way in which we can have 3 teams from the same conference.   Here is how that would play out.  Let’s assume Alabama over Auburn and LSU over Arkansas.

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

Rose Bowl: #8 Oregon vs. #11 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #3 Oklahoma State vs. #5 Stanford

Sugar Bowl: #10 Georgia vs. #9 Kansas State

Orange Bowl: #4 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

Scenario 3

Here is my obligatory VT in the NCG scenario.  Auburn beats Bama, LSU wins the SEC, OU beats Oklahoma.   Just to note, I think that the Orange bowl would not choose Stanford for a second straight year and might choose the large fan base at Michigan to come down (Clemson is not eligible).

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Virginia Tech

Rose Bowl: #7 Oregon vs. #12 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #8 Oklahoma vs. #3 Stanford

Sugar Bowl: #4 Alabama vs. #9 Oklahoma State

Orange Bowl: #12 Michigan vs. #? WVU

Scenario 4

Here is my final scenario for the week.  What if VT loses to either UVA or Clemson? I think the still have a shot at an at-large.  They would probably need Michigan to lose to Ohio State just for good measure. Also of note, Houston would not need to lose.  Because the Fiesta Bowl choses first, they would not chose the higher ranked Big 12 school and choose between VT, Boise St, and Michigan St, leaving Houston to be chosen by the sugar bowl if necessary.  Yet, lets assume a Houston loss as well as normalcy in all other areas and here is how it would end up.

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

Rose Bowl: #7 Oregon vs. #12 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #8 Oklahoma State vs. #11 Virginia Tech  

Sugar Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. #8 Kansas State

Orange Bowl: #16 Clemson vs. #? WVU