Friday, November 18, 2011

Virginia Tech vs UNC Analysis

Virginia Tech won last night to move to 10-1 on the season and produce another 10 win season for Frank Beamer.  I’m happy for the team and really believe that they can go on to win against UVA and even beat Clemson in the ACC Championship.  However, last night’s game left a lot to be desired, especially by a 10 win team.
I had a theory during last night’s game that I wanted to research before allowing myself to believe it.  But after look back at VT’s games this year, I’m going to do it and blame our poor performances on the bad weather.  I’m cringing while typing that, because it feels so wrong to make that excuse.  But, of the 11 games that have been played by the Hokies this year, there have been 4 bad weather games (Ark St, Clemson, Duke, UNC) and 7 good weather games.  And, in all 4 of the bad weather games the Hokies have failed to score above their yearly average of 29.4 points.
They are actually averaging 16.75 points per game in these games, compared to 36.57 points on average in the other 7.  Now, this would make sense if the Hokies were able to hold their opponents to fewer points in bad weather games meaning the opposing offenses were struggling as well.  But, it seems that the defense is struggling just as much to play well in the poor conditions.   They are allowing 15.25 points in bad weather games and 17.86 points in those where the weather isn’t a factor.  To me, it seems that the weather isn’t affecting the other teams.  So why just VT?
Here is what I think.  The Hokies are actually not built to be a smash mouth football team.  It’s sad, but they can’t perform up to their high standards when they need to “out-athlete” other teams.  They do not have the stellar athletes (like UNC and Clemson) and are dependent upon being able to work through the schemes designed by the coaching staff.  However, during bad weather scenarios, the game comes down to who can out muscle the other team and VT simply can’t do that well. 
The reason for this is that the Hokies have consistently recruited the undersized guys who can play well in their schemes.  However, this doesn’t help win when matching up against the oversized offensive and defensive lines of UNC in the bitter cold.  Still, the Hokies came out on top because they found a way to make things happen.  So don’t get too down on the Hokies, just blame it on the weather and move on.  Yikes, I still hate to say that!
Just FYI, it’s supposed to be 57 and sunny in Charlottesville next weekend! Looks like another Coastal Division Title to me!

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