10 BCS Questions (Part 3)

If you've haven't already read questions 1-7, check them out here:

8)     What would a 12-team playoff look like!?

Here is what I would love to see as a playoff system for the current Bowl Subdivision (former 1-A). 

First, a selection committee (that heavily relied upon the BCS rankings) would select the top 4 teams.  They would be given a bye   Also, these seeds will only be given to teams that have won their conference.  This is because, in most conferences, they would already be required to play an extra game and I think conference champions should be rewarded.  This year the top 4 seeds would be:

1 seed: LSU

2 seed: Oklahoma State

3 seed: Virginia Tech

4 seed: Oregon

Then, the committee would rank the next 8 schools with the higher seed hosting the first round game.  Also, all auto tie-ins will still be awarded and there will be a three team per conference limit with a requirement that schools from the same conference will not meet until the semifinals.

5 seed: Alabama

6 seed: Stanford

7 seed: Arkansas

8 seed: Houston

9 seed: Boise State

10 seed: Wisconsin

11 seed: Kansas State

12 seed: West Virginia

With the games:

West Virginia @ Alabama (6:00 PM ET)

Kansas State @ Stanford (9:30 PM ET)

Wisconsin @ Arkansas (3:30 PM ET)

Boise State @ Houston (12:00PM ET)

Traditional bowl affiliations would be used for the next playoff games (if PAC-10 and BIG-10 schools are chosen, the higher seed will play in the Rose Bowl) with the losers of the opening round games being matched up in the Capital One Bowl and Cotton Bowl.  We would see:

Alabama/WVU vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl

Stanford/Kansas State vs Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl

Arkansas/Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl

Houston/Boise State vs LSU in the Sugar Bowl

After the bowls the teams would be reseeded according to original ranking.  The lowest seed remaining will play at the home of the highest seed remaining.  The other two schools will play at the home of the higher seed

Lowest Seed @ Highest Seed

Lower Seed @ Higher Seed

The championship game would then be held the following week at a pre-determined rotating site among the now "6 BCS Bowls". 

How’s that sound!? Let me know your thoughts...

9)     What should be the biggest complaint about the BCS?

The voters don’t watch all the games and aren’t instructed on how to vote properly.  The voters try to be objetive!

The computers are the tool used to measure objectivity.  They are set to determine, based on mere wins and losses, who is the best team. 

Now, even computers have a bias.  The guys who right the programs have to assign value to wins and losses and how much strength of schedule effects the ranking.  I would love to see how some of the ranking are determined but they aren't published! To solve this I would also like to see another six computers added to the equation and require the voters to publish their built in biases.  

Anyways, back to the original preface.  My point is that the voters should vote on which team looks the best! Which team is playing the best right now and which team would beat another team in their opinion.  The voters should not be worrying about the so-called “body of work”! That is for the computers to mess with.  They are paid to either coach, watch or write about sports.  They know when a team “looks” good and “looks” bad. 

Vote on that and quit trying to do what the computers are there to do!

10)       What could keep LSU AND Alabama out of the NCG?

So, what if come Sunday morning we hear that the NCAA has been investigating both LSU and Alabama this entire year and that they will be handing down significant sanctions upon both schools.   We come to find out that both schools have been providing significant benefits to players and will be put on post-season restrictions for this year and next year.  

The world would rejoice and we would probably see Oklahoma State vs either Virginia Tech or Stanford in the National Championship Game! Georgia and Arkansas will both go to BCS games and everyone would be so much happier with life and the BCS! 

The first round games would be held the week after the conference championship games. 

10 BCS Questions (Part 2)

To continue my post from earlier, here are the next 4 questions about the BCS.  These questions have to do with the other BCS games.

4)     What if Houston loses to Southern Miss?

This creates an interesting scenario for another team to jump into the BCS Bowl games.  Assuming all else goes according to plan, the teams listed below would be eligible for at-Large bids.  Also, it is important to remember that if Houston loses and TCU makes it into the top 16, they will earn a spot in a BCS game (likely they sugar). 

Stanford

Boise State

Oklahoma

Kansas State

Michigan

The Wisconsin/Michigan State loser may still be eligible and Baylor may jump into the mix of top 14 teams.  But for now, lets assume those five. 

The projection all along has been that the Sugar Bowl takes Michigan and that the Fiesta Bowl will take Stanford to play Oklahoma State.  The Sugar Bowl could take an 11-1 Boise State team, a 10-2 Kansas State team or a 9-3 Oklahoma team.  I’m not sure who the team of choice would be.  Boise State would bring the best ranking and record.  However, they would be far less of a draw for the audience.  Kansas State brings a better record than Oklahoma but doesn’t have as large of a fan base.  Oklahoma will be coming off of a loss and will be ranked lowest of the three.  Sadly, I think that the Sugar bowl will decide to match up the “traditional” powers and we will see a Michigan vs Oklahoma game in the Sugar Bowl.  Personally, I would love to see Boise State in this game.

If Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State were to lose this weekend, they would also be in line for discussion here.  I think both of those teams would be selected before any of the other options listed above (Oklahoma could be chosen over VT).  Oklahoma State would draw a huge local crowd and the bowls know that Virginia Tech travels extremely well. 

5)     What is the most interesting scenario?

I think that the most interesting outcome would be if Georgia beats LSU, Oklahoma State jumps to #2 in the rankings and Houston loses (but doesn’t fall out of the top 14).  The first consequence would mean that either LSU or Alabama would be completely left out of the BCS picture.  The Fiesta Bowl would then pick between Oklahoma and Kansas State.  After this the only other at-large candidates would be Stanford, Boise State, or Houston.  Michigan would not jump the two spots needed to become eligible since Georgia was victorious.  The Fiesta would take Stanford and I think the Sugar would choose WVU (assuming a Cincinnati victory on Saturday).  I think the Mountaineers would be a bigger draw and they would want to avoid a rematch between Boise State and Georgia.  The Orange Bowl would then match up the Hokies with Boise State!

6)     Can VT get an at-large bid if they lose?

VT would need the following to happen by my logic:

1)     Houston Loss

2)     LSU / Alabama NCG

3)     Oklahoma Loss and fall below 14

4)     Georgia loss to LSU

Here is how I arrived at that conclusion.

There will be 4 at-large spots available so the Hokies need to be the 4^th most attractive among the following teams:

Team	Ahead of VT by…	Ineligible or behind VT by…
2) Alabama	Remaining #2 or LSU win	Georgia win and OSU in NCG
3) Oklahoma State	Loss to Oklahoma	Win over Oklahoma (auto bid)
4) Stanford	Always (Top 4 team)	Never
6) Houston	Win over USM (auto bid)	Loss to USM
7) Boise State	Never (VT travels better)	Always
8) Arkansas	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
9) Oregon	Never	Win Conference or fall below 14
10) Oklahoma	Loss to OSU and remain in top 14	Win over OSU or falling below 14
11) Kansas State	OSU in NCG and chosen for Fiesta	OSU not in NCG or not chosen as replacement
12) South Carolina	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
13) Michigan State	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
14) Georgia	Winning SEC and LSU/Bama rematch in NCG	Losing to LSU and OSU in NCG
15) Wisconsin	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
16) Michigan	Jumping to 14 or higher	Not jumping into top 14 (Georgia win)

As you can see there are 8 teams that could be chosen before VT.  First of all, Stanford will be going to BCS bowl and will take one of the spots.  Secondly, either Alabama or Georgia will take another spot.  That leaves Houston, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Michigan and Georgia (only if we have an Alabama / LSU NCG spot and Georgia wins the SEC Championship).   Because of the rankings, one of Oklahoma, Michigan or Georgia will have to be included and will take up a third spot.  This leaves Houston, Kansas State and two of the following: Michigan, Oklahoma and Georgia.  VT would need for all of the teams left to be ineligible and thus the requirements listed above. 

I think this is accurate, if you find some scenario that I haven’t thought of where VT is in, that I haven’t thought of, LET ME KNOW!

7)     Are any teams guaranteed BCS spots?

Stanford is the only team guaranteed a spot in the BCS.  There will be at least 2 at-large spots available and Michigan (if eligible) is the only team that could be chosen over Stanford.

All of the other schools could be left out if situations don't go their way.

 

10 BCS Questions (Part 1)

We all know by this point what should happen in the BCS come Sunday night.  Here are a few sites that are all projecting the same matchups in the five BCS Bowl games. 

ESPN: http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls

CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

YAHOO: http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1297268&PT=4&PR=2

However, I've come up with 10 questions that may get you thinking otherwise.   

The first three are listed here with more to come!

1)     What if Oklahoma State Destroys Oklahoma?

This is the burning question among most of the “experts” out there.  Would Oklahoma State warrant jumping Alabama in the BCS Standings with an impressive win over Oklahoma?  With this win I would expect OSU to be the #2 ranked team in all the computers.   This would happen because Oklahoma is currently the 5^th ranked team in the computers and a victory over them would sure help the ranking. 

With being ranked #2 in the computers, OSU would just need for about 1/3 of the voters to select them ahead of Alabama on their ballots.   I am really convinced that this is a possibility.  Ten percent of the voters already don’t have Alabama as the number #2 team and I think a big win by the Cowboys and the desire for there to not be a rematch could increase to the needed number of around 33%. 

Still, it is important to note that Oklahoma State would also need to jump Stanford and Virginia Tech.   If they remain behind those two teams in some of the polls, I would say that they would need to be ranked #2 in upwards of 50% of the polls. 

2)     What if LSU loses a close one to Georgia?

While I think this is very unlikely, it could happen; and, remember that Georgia is probably the 3^rd best team in the SEC right now.  The biggest impact of this result would be in the computers.  The most likely scenario would be for OSU to jump both LSU and Alabama and get the #1 computer vote (assuming a win over Oklahoma).  LSU would most likely fall to #2 and Alabama would fall to #3.  This would make it much easier for OSU to jump Alabama and would just require a little love from the voters.

The bigger question here is how would the voters end up voting? Who would receive the #1 votes in the polls? Would Oklahoma State be worthy of any #1 votes? If I were a voter, I would have a hard time ranking Alabama ahead of LSU because of the fact that LSU was required to play an extra game just because they beat Alabama.  I would also have a hard time keeping LSU at #1.  I think a loss to Georgia would expose both LSU and Alabama and should make some of the voters think about that #1 spot.  In the end I don’t think the polls would chance much and would hope that the voters would not punish LSU with a close loss to a good team. 

I would expect LSU to remain #1 in the polls and be followed by Alabama.  Stanford, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State would be very closely bunched at #s 3, 4 and 5.  Because of the way the BCS works, being ranked ahead of another team doesn’t really matter if you are close in votes.  

It would come down to the computers and like I said above Oklahoma State would be ranked #1 and would have a good chance of jumping into the National Title Game. I think this is the best case to avoid a rematch.

3)     What if Oklahoma State loses?

This would be an interesting scenario.  I don’t think that Stanford would warrant being voted ahead of Alabama because they would not have won their conference and I don’t think Virginia Tech could beat out Alabama in the computers.  In the end I think this means we are most certainly headed for a rematch. 

Even if LSU were to lose to Georgia, I don't think it would matter.  LSU and Alabama would maintain their ranking at #1 and #2 and Stanford and Virginia Tech will not have the computer ranking numbers to jump either of the SEC schools. 

College Football Picks: Week 14

As the final week of the season draws near, here are my final predictions as to how this season will play out.  I’ll pick the conference champion for each conference and all games will also be picked against the spread.  Last week, I went 2-3 against the spread on my confident picks, 8-7 overall against the spread and 12-3 overall straight-up.  Not a very quality week in that regard, hopefully I’ll do better this week.  (Check out last week’s picks to see where I went wrong and make sure to read how many points I thought Arkansas would score).  Maybe I’ll even go 38-0!!!





My most confident picks are again starred this week.

Big East:

* West Virginia – 2.5 over South Florida – Both teams are playing for their season in this game.  WVU is looking to go to a BCS bowl and USF is just trying to go bowling.  However, due to South Florida recent struggles at home, losing their past 4 games, I give the advantage to WVU by 3.   

Connecticut +9 over Cincinnati – With WVU winning on Thursday, Cincinnati will have nothing to play for in this game and UConn will be fighting for a bowl berth.  Cincinnati wins, but it’s closer than expected.

After the weekend is over WVU will be in line to represent the Big East in the Orange Bowl where they will face the ACC Champion…

ACC:

* Virginia Tech – 7 over Clemson – I don’t think that VT blows out Clemson like everyone is saying.  Clemson will come to play and Hokies better be ready.  Like a typical VT game, they will struggle early and pull away in the second half to win by 14. 

Virginia Tech will be headed to the Orange Bowl to face WVU.

PAC-12:

Oregon – 31 over UCLA – That is a HUGE number! But, in UCLA’s 6 losses this season (that’s right, 6!) they have allowed an average of 43.5 pts and have scored 14.7.  That’s a difference of just under 29 points.  I’d give 2 points to any team in the PAC-12 playing Oregon and will take Oregon to BLOW-OUT UCLA! I’m hoping for 80 in this one!

With this win, Oregon will win head to the Rose Bowl where they will face the Big Ten Champion…

Big-10:

Michigan State + 10 over Wisconsin – I was expecting Wisconsin to be favored by 3 in this game, but the 10 is just too much to give up.  MSU has the #11 rushing defense in the country and should be able to slow down Montee Ball (my vote for Heisman) enough to keep this one close.  However, Wisconsin will pull this one off in the end and MSU will not convert the Hail Mary this time!  Just to note, look for Montee Ball to jump even further into the national spotlight with a big performance in this game.  It might be the chance for him to finally get some much due Heisman consideration.

Wisconsin will head to its second straight Rose Bowl to face Oregon.

SEC:

* LSU – 13 over Georgia – I learned my lesson last week to bet against LSU.  LSU is just too fast on defense and runs the ball extremely well (#18 nationally, #2 in the SEC).  I think they win handily again.

LSU will go the NCG against… 

Big 12:

Oklahoma State – 3 over Oklahoma – Since losing Broyles, Oklahoma hasn’t looked the same.  They lost to Baylor and struggled against Iowa State (at home and not after a tragedy).  I think OSU uses their bye week well and comes out firing against Oklahoma (who has average less than 8 points in the first quarter for the season and have only scored a field goal in their last 2). 

OSU will sadly go to the …  Fiesta Bowl even though they will be the most deserving team to make the National Championship game besides LSU.  Alabama will most likely remain #2 forcing us to watch the dreaded rematch.

Conference USA:

* Houston – 14 over Southern Miss – Last week Houston faced their toughest test of the season on the road against a really good Tulsa team and won easily.  This week, Houston will be at home and will dominate even more over Southern Miss. 

Houston will go the Sugar Bowl against ...  They will most likely play Michigan according to other experts out there.  However, I’m not sold that Michigan moves into the top 14 or that the Sugar Bowl doesn’t take Stanford instead.  Be on the lookout for some alternate possibilities in my blog over the next few days about other teams like Michigan State, Kansas State, or even Boise State making BCS Bowls.  Also, don’t count out Oklahoma State or Virginia Tech even if they lose. 

And just for fun!

Heisman: Week 14

After last week, my mind has changed some on the Heisman trophy.  I have taken last week’s post and updated it to reflect what happened in last week’s games.  But first, here is how I would vote with last week's ranking in parenthesis:

1)      Montee Ball (+2)

2)      Trent Richardson (+0)

3)      Andrew Luck (+1)

4)      Matt Barkley (NR)

5)      Case Keenum (+0)

Below is the original list of players that I listed as of last week for Heisman consideration.  I’ve marked out the few players that I think are out of the race after this past weekend's games. 

Trent Richardson

Brandon Weeden

Justin Blackmon

David Wilson

Logan Thomas

Andrew Luck

Kellen Moore

Case Keenum

Landry Jones

LaMicheal James

Colin Klein

Aaron Murray

Montee Ball

Russell Wilson

Robert Griffin

Matt Barkley

First of all, LaMicheal James was injured for the second half of last week’s game and while that doesn’t mean he is any worse of a player, we saw that Oregon was still able to roll without him.  He won’t be able to make up any ground next week because of the weakness of UCLA.  Even if he has 3 TDs and 200 yards, I don’t think that gets him back into consideration.  Landry Jones had a very sub-par performance against Iowa State.  When compared to Weeden’s stats from the previous week (even though OSU lost), Jones looked far inferior.  Russell Wilson and Colin Klein were the hardest to cut from the list.  Wilson has fallen off stat-wise for the past two weeks.  His yardage, TDs, and completion percentage are all down and Montee Ball has stolen the show in Wisconsin for now.  Klein on the other hand has fallen out of the national spotlight.  He looked great against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State however with being off this week and a game against Iowa State next week.  I don’t think Klein is still in consideration.  I also think that Logan Thomas should be out, but I feel like leaving him in just for the heck of it. 

Now I’ll divide them into QB and non-QB for discussion purposes.  First let’s discuss the non-QB.

Trent Richardson – 1583 yds, 6.0 yds/attempt, 20 TDs; 3 TD rec; 9 100-yard games; 327 rec yards

Justin Blackmon – 1241 yds, 12 yds/reception, 15 TDs; scored a TD in each of teams last 10 games

David Wilson – 1595 yds, 6.3 yds/attempt, 9 TDs; 1 TD rec; 10 100-yard games; never rushed for below 82 yards

Montee Ball – 1622 yds, 6.5 yds/attempt, 29 TDs; 5 TD rec; 2 200-yard games; scored at least 2 TDs in every game

Here is how I rank the RBs/WRs with previous ranking in parenthesis:

1)      Montee Ball (2)

2)      Trent Richardson (1)

3)      David Wilson (3)

4)      Justin Blackmon (4)

Montee Ball moves ahead of Richardson this week in my mind due to his scoring 4 TD’s against a very good Penn State defense.  Richardson and Wilson both also had superb outings this week as well.  Wilson could move ahead of Richardson with a dominating performance in the ACC Championship game (200 yds, 3TDs would probably be needed).  Also, Montee Ball needs a win to remain in his perch atop the non-QB rankings.  Blackmon remains in a distant fourth, but could jump to 2^nd with Wisconsin and Virginia Tech losses. 

Now on to the QBs

Brandon Weeden – 4111 yds, 73 comp%, 34 TDs, 12 ints, 162.2 rating; 4 400-yd passing games and 1 500-yd game

Logan Thomas – 2525 yds, 60.5 comp%, 18 TDs, 7 ints, 141.2 rating; 10 TDs rushing; 23 total TDs and 2 picks in last 7 games

Andrew Luck – 3170 yds, 70 comp%, 35 TDs, 9 ints, 167.5 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 8 games with 3 or more TD Passes, at least 2 TDs in every game

Kellen Moore – 3194 yds, 73.8 comp%, 38 TDs, 7 ints, 175.2 rating; 9 games with 3 or more TD passes, at least 2 TDs in every game

Case Keenum – 4726 yds, 73.4 comp%, 43 TDs, 3 ints, 187.3 rating; 3 TDs rushing; until last week, never had a game rating below 150, 9 TDs in one game

Aaron Murray – 2698 yds, 61 comp%, 32 TDs, 10 ints, 155.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; led team to 10 straight victories

Robert Griffin – 3678 yds, 72.9 comp%, 34 TDs, 5 ints, 191.1 rating; 7 TDs rushing; thrown for 3 TDs in 8 games

Matt Barkley – 3528 yds, 69.1 comp%, 39 TDs, 5 ints, 161.2 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 2 6-TD games

Here is how I rank the QBs with their previous ranking in parenthesis.

1)      Andrew Luck (2)

2)      Matt Barkley (8)

3)      Case Keenum (3)

4)      Brandon Weeden (5)

5)      Robert Griffin (1)

6)      Aaron Murray (10)

7)      Kellen Moore (7)

8)      Logan Thomas (9)

This past week most of these quarterbacks did a significant amount to improve their Heisman profile.  However, my #1 ranked player last week, Robert Griffin III, was the only player to digress.  That will hurt his chances significantly moving forward.  Matt Barkley had the best day statistically; however, I think that Andrew Luck did the most to bolster his Heisman chances.   Kellen Moore had another great game, but is falling drastically out of the race due to a lack of exposure.   For two of the players listed above, their season is over (Luck, Barkley).  Brandon Weeden will have a chance next week to jump right back into the Heisman picture and Case Keenum could easily move up with the national exposure of the Conference USA Championship Game.  Also, Aaron Murray and Logan Thomas could both make a case with a very strong performance in their respective championship games.  Murray would need to beat LSU and Thomas would need a 5-TD performance and team domination over Clemson.  Robert Griffin will need to play next week (he is currently listed as questionable) to have a chance.  He is playing Texas, which should bring exposure and could boost his resume.   

SEC vs ACC: Week 13 Recap

After going 1-3 against the SEC yesterday, the ACC has once again proved its inferiority to the so-called “best conference” in college football.  In four games yesterday the ACC sent the teams with the 2^nd – 5^th best records in league play into battle against the top 4 schools in the very week SEC East. 

The only victory for the ACC was Florida State, who beat a bad Florida team who hasn’t beaten an FBS team with a winning record all season.  The real chance for the ACC to prove itself came with Clemson and Georgia Tech.  They both lost by a combined score of 65-30.  Then, the real smack in the face of the ACC came when Vanderbilt steam rolled Wake Forest at home by a score of 41-7. 

Sadly, while the ACC looked bad this weekend, the top of the SEC looked even better.  LSU and Alabama did a lot to impress the voters by rolling their conference rivals to pretty much sure up their rematch in the National Title Game.  I had been down on the offenses in the SEC all season, and thought that neither team would be able to score enough to blow out a good Arkansas team (for LSU) and a bitter rival Auburn (for Alabama).  I was wrong.  Their offenses seems to have clicked with Jordan Jefferson (LSU) limiting his interceptions and Trent Richardson (Alabama) boosting his Heisman resume.  I have concluded that they are the two best teams in the country.  However, I’m not sure that I would say that means that they should rematch in the NCG.  I’ll post about my thoughts on that later this week.

The only positive for the ACC continues to be the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Their model of consistency is the only thing keeping the conference ahead of the Big East.   Their big win over UVA is only the final straw in a stellar finish to the regular season.  They have won 7 straight games and will most likely be ranked #4 in the country after the BCS standings come out tonight. 

College Football Picks: Week 13

Traditionally, these final two weeks are consistently the hardest to predict.  With rivalry games, the pressure of BCS Bowl bids, and the desire to become bowl eligible.  Nevertheless, here are my best guesses at how this week turn out.  * marks games with high confidence/

Top 25:

Arkansas +12 over LSU – I have a good feeling about how well Arkansas will play in this game.  The question for me is with Arkansas’ defense and if they can slow down LSU’s offense.  I think Arkansas scores 17 pts in this game, let see if their defense can hold them.  My pick here is for LSU to win the game.

*Auburn +21 over Alabama – With the entire country behind them, Auburn comes out fighting.   I am not sold on Alabama’s offense and think they struggle in this game.  Alabama wins it in the end.

Stanford -7 over Notre Dame – Notre Dame is tied for 116^th in turnover margin and this game is at Stanford.  I don’t see an upset happening here.

Clemson +4 over South Carolina – Ever since losing Marcus Lattimore South Carolina has struggled offensively.   I think that Clemson is tired of all the turnovers and comes out firing in this game.  Clemson wins this one on the road.

Georgia -5.5 over Georgia Tech – Georgia has the #2 rush defense in the country and Aaron Murray is on fire right now.    They slow down GT triple option and win by 7 in Atlanta.

*Penn State +15 over Wisconsin – Penn State’s defense is good enough to hold Wisconsin’s offense in check and not let this game get out of hand.  Wisconsin wins at home but its closer than expected. 

ACC:

Boston College +14 over Miami – Boston College’s defense isn’t that bad and Miami has struggle lately on Offense.  Miami still wins but BC keeps it closer than the 2 TDs.

NC State -11.5 over Maryland – I’ve been saying this for the past few weeks.  Maryland is BAD! NC State looked great last week and needs to win this one for a bowl birth.  They will also be looking for revenge from last year’s loss, which kept NC State out of the ACC Championship Game. 

*Virginia Tech – 4 over Virginia – ONLY 4 POINTS!! Come on! VT wins this one by 14. 

*Duke + 13 over UNC – UNC wins this one, but Duke isn’t the Duke of years past and will keep this one very close.  UNC wins this one late.

Wake Forest -1.5 over Vanderbilt – Vandy hasn’t won a game against a decent team all year, and while Wake isn’t great, they are quite good and very well coached.  I’ll take Wake in this toss up. 

*Florida State -1 over Florida – Florida has struggled with quality competition all year and was even down by 15 to Furman in the first half last week.

Big 12:

Iowa St + 28.5 over Oklahoma – Coming off of their win over OSU and a three game winning streak the Cyclones have figured some things out and will make this game closer than 4 TDs.  Oklahoma still wins.

Missouri -24 over Kansas – Kansas looked awful last week and it won’t get any easier this week.  Mizzou wins big.

Baylor -13 over Texas Tech – Baylor doesn’t have a hangover after their win over Oklahoma.  RG3 will lead his team and prove that he is a viable Heisman candidate with this win.

Heisman: Week 13

If I had a vote for the Heisman trophy and had to vote today, here is how I would vote:

1)      Robert Griffin

2)      Trent Richardson

3)      Montee Ball

4)      Andrew Luck

5)      Case Keenum

Before you get completely up in arms, I’ve outlined my thinking below.  But, I would love to hear your thoughts on this, especially if you disagree. 

First of all, here is the list of players that I think should be considered. Sorted by team ranking:

Trent Richardson

Brandon Weeden

Justin Blackmon

David Wilson

Logan Thomas

Andrew Luck

Kellen Moore

Case Keenum

Landry Jones

LaMicheal James

Colin Klein

Aaron Murray

Montee Ball

Russell Wilson

Robert Griffin

Matt Barkley

Now I’ll divide them into QB and non-QB for discussion purposes.  First let’s discuss the non-QB.

Trent Richardson – 1380 yds, 5.8 yds/attempt, 20 TDs; 2 TD rec; 8 100-yard games; 322 rec yards

Justin Blackmon – 1241 yds, 12 yds/reception, 15 TDs; scored a TD in each of teams last 10 games

David Wilson – 1442 yds, 6.2 yds/attempt, 7 TDs; 1 TD rec; 9 100-yard games; never rushed for below 82 yards

LaMicheal James – 1284 yds, 7.4 yds/attempt, 13 TDs; 1 TD rec; 3 200-yard games

Montee Ball – 1466 yds, 6.6 yds/attempt, 25 TDs; 5 TD rec; 2 200-yard games; scored at least 2 TDs in every game

Taking into account the stats of these players, their competition and support from other teammates, I rank them as follows:

1)      Trent Richardson

2)      Montee Ball

3)      David Wilson

4)      Justin Blackmon

5)      LaMicheal James

I have gone back and forth over whether Richardson should be ahead of Ball or not.  The only distinguishing mark for me is that Alabama is ranked number two in the country.  Other than that, the pair seems to be very equally deserving.  Wilson is third because of his 9 100-yard games and Blackmon comes in 4^th because of being able to score so consistently over the past 10 games. 

Now on to the QBs

Brandon Weeden – 4111 yds, 73 comp%, 34 TDs, 12 ints, 162.2 rating; 4 400-yd passing games and 1 500-yd game

Logan Thomas – 2338 yds, 60.4 comp%, 16 TDs, 7 ints, 139.3 rating; 9 TDs rushing; 20 total TDs and 2 picks in last 6 games

Andrew Luck – 2937 yds, 70.3 comp%, 31 TDs, 8 ints, 167.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; thrown at least 2 TDs in every game this year

Kellen Moore– 2915 yds, 73.8 comp%, 35 TDs, 6 ints, 177.5 rating; 8 games with 3 or more TD passes, at least 2 TDs in every game

Case Keenum – 4269 yds, 73.4 comp%, 38 TDs, 3 ints, 186.9 rating; 3 TDs rushing; until last week, never had a game rating below 150, 9 TDs in one game

Landry Jones – 3796 yds, 65.3 comp%, 28 TDs, 10 ints, 153.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 3 5-TD games

Colin Klein – 1587 yds, 58.5 comp%, 11 TDs, 5 ints, 126.1 rating; 25 TDs rushing; 1013 yds rushing; 23 total TDs and 2 picks in last 6 games

Aaron Murray – 2446 yds, 60.6 comp%, 28 TDs, 8 ints, 153.3 rating; 2 TDs rushing; led team to 9 straight victories;

Russell Wilson – 2506 yds. 73.6 comp%, 26 TDs, 3 ints, 199.3 rating; 5 TDs rushing; lowest game rating is 159.8 with 5 games over 200

Robert Griffin– 3572 yds, 72.9 comp%, 33 TDs, 5 ints, 191.7 rating; 5 TDs rushing; thrown for 3 TDs in 8 games

Matt Barkley – 3105 yds, 67.6 comp%, 33 TDs, 5 ints, 155.6 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 6-TD game

The difficulty with ranking the QBs is that you have to muddle through all these stats and figure out who has had the biggest impact on their team’s performance and carried the stats to warrant being the nation’s best player.  All of that then has to run against how good the team is and how good of competition they have played. 

1)      Robert Griffin

2)      Andrew Luck

3)      Case Keenum

4)      Colin Klein

5)      Brandon Weeden

6)      Russell Wilson

7)      Kellen Moore

8)      Matt Barkley

9)      Logan Thomas

10)    Aaron Murray

11)    Landry Jones

The decision to place Robert Griffin as the number one choice was highly motivated by his performance against Oklahoma on Saturday night.  However, note that he also has the stats to back-up being placed here.  I think that Andrew Luck and Case Keenum both seem to be doing an excellent job with a sub-par supporting cast.  Luck gets the nod because of better competition.  Klein is tied for the national lead in rushing TDs.  He has fallen this far because he has pretty awful QB stats, but wins out over Weeden to to Weeden’s interception count and the loss to Iowa State.  Russell Wilson is a model of consistency and has performed well the entire year.  However, he has been aided by a limited passing game and the efficiency of Montee Ball running the ball.  Logan Thomas didn’t come in last because of his recent superb performances and my natural bias!