Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Heisman: Week 13

If I had a vote for the Heisman trophy and had to vote today, here is how I would vote:

1)      Robert Griffin
2)      Trent Richardson
3)      Montee Ball
4)      Andrew Luck
5)      Case Keenum

Before you get completely up in arms, I’ve outlined my thinking below.  But, I would love to hear your thoughts on this, especially if you disagree. 

First of all, here is the list of players that I think should be considered. Sorted by team ranking:
Trent Richardson
Brandon Weeden
Justin Blackmon
David Wilson
Logan Thomas
Andrew Luck
Kellen Moore
Case Keenum
Landry Jones
LaMicheal James
Colin Klein
Aaron Murray
Montee Ball
Russell Wilson
Robert Griffin
Matt Barkley

Now I’ll divide them into QB and non-QB for discussion purposes.  First let’s discuss the non-QB.

Trent Richardson – 1380 yds, 5.8 yds/attempt, 20 TDs; 2 TD rec; 8 100-yard games; 322 rec yards
Justin Blackmon – 1241 yds, 12 yds/reception, 15 TDs; scored a TD in each of teams last 10 games
David Wilson – 1442 yds, 6.2 yds/attempt, 7 TDs; 1 TD rec; 9 100-yard games; never rushed for below 82 yards
LaMicheal James – 1284 yds, 7.4 yds/attempt, 13 TDs; 1 TD rec; 3 200-yard games
Montee Ball – 1466 yds, 6.6 yds/attempt, 25 TDs; 5 TD rec; 2 200-yard games; scored at least 2 TDs in every game

Taking into account the stats of these players, their competition and support from other teammates, I rank them as follows:

1)      Trent Richardson
2)      Montee Ball
3)      David Wilson
4)      Justin Blackmon
5)      LaMicheal James

I have gone back and forth over whether Richardson should be ahead of Ball or not.  The only distinguishing mark for me is that Alabama is ranked number two in the country.  Other than that, the pair seems to be very equally deserving.  Wilson is third because of his 9 100-yard games and Blackmon comes in 4th because of being able to score so consistently over the past 10 games. 

Now on to the QBs

Brandon Weeden – 4111 yds, 73 comp%, 34 TDs, 12 ints, 162.2 rating; 4 400-yd passing games and 1 500-yd game
Logan Thomas – 2338 yds, 60.4 comp%, 16 TDs, 7 ints, 139.3 rating; 9 TDs rushing; 20 total TDs and 2 picks in last 6 games
Andrew Luck – 2937 yds, 70.3 comp%, 31 TDs, 8 ints, 167.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; thrown at least 2 TDs in every game this year
Kellen Moore– 2915 yds, 73.8 comp%, 35 TDs, 6 ints, 177.5 rating; 8 games with 3 or more TD passes, at least 2 TDs in every game
Case Keenum – 4269 yds, 73.4 comp%, 38 TDs, 3 ints, 186.9 rating; 3 TDs rushing; until last week, never had a game rating below 150, 9 TDs in one game
Landry Jones – 3796 yds, 65.3 comp%, 28 TDs, 10 ints, 153.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 3 5-TD games
Colin Klein 1587 yds, 58.5 comp%, 11 TDs, 5 ints, 126.1 rating; 25 TDs rushing; 1013 yds rushing; 23 total TDs and 2 picks in last 6 games
Aaron Murray – 2446 yds, 60.6 comp%, 28 TDs, 8 ints, 153.3 rating; 2 TDs rushing; led team to 9 straight victories;
Russell Wilson – 2506 yds. 73.6 comp%, 26 TDs, 3 ints, 199.3 rating; 5 TDs rushing; lowest game rating is 159.8 with 5 games over 200
Robert Griffin– 3572 yds, 72.9 comp%, 33 TDs, 5 ints, 191.7 rating; 5 TDs rushing; thrown for 3 TDs in 8 games
Matt Barkley – 3105 yds, 67.6 comp%, 33 TDs, 5 ints, 155.6 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 6-TD game

The difficulty with ranking the QBs is that you have to muddle through all these stats and figure out who has had the biggest impact on their team’s performance and carried the stats to warrant being the nation’s best player.  All of that then has to run against how good the team is and how good of competition they have played. 

1)      Robert Griffin
2)      Andrew Luck
3)      Case Keenum
4)      Colin Klein
5)      Brandon Weeden
6)      Russell Wilson
7)      Kellen Moore
8)      Matt Barkley
9)      Logan Thomas
10)    Aaron Murray
11)    Landry Jones

The decision to place Robert Griffin as the number one choice was highly motivated by his performance against Oklahoma on Saturday night.  However, note that he also has the stats to back-up being placed here.  I think that Andrew Luck and Case Keenum both seem to be doing an excellent job with a sub-par supporting cast.  Luck gets the nod because of better competition.  Klein is tied for the national lead in rushing TDs.  He has fallen this far because he has pretty awful QB stats, but wins out over Weeden to to Weeden’s interception count and the loss to Iowa State.  Russell Wilson is a model of consistency and has performed well the entire year.  However, he has been aided by a limited passing game and the efficiency of Montee Ball running the ball.  Logan Thomas didn’t come in last because of his recent superb performances and my natural bias!

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