College Football Week 10 Analysis

Yesterday’s football slate ended up being quite sub par when I came to quality games.  And living in Dallas, I couldn’t catch the local coverage of the ACC games.  But, here are some notes and thoughts on what I saw in yesterday’s action.  Be sure to check out my post from earlier on the LSU vs Alabama game as well. 

The Crazy Big Ten:

In the past three weeks in the Big Ten, six ranked teams have been upset and chaos is ensuing atop the conference standings.  Right now eight teams are already bowl eligible with Northwestern and Purdue still close to making it as well.  Additionally, 7 teams have 2 or fewer losses in conference play; making these last few weeks extremely interesting.  I said last week that I thought Nebraska would meet Wisconsin the title game; but, with Nebraska’s loss, I will revise that to say that I think we will see Michigan State vs Wisconsin.  Be on the look out for next week’s version of the “Weekly Big Ten Championship Game Pick”!

Oklahoma State’s Big Play Defense:

We saw last night what happens when a team that takes risks on defense doesn’t get the big plays that they need.  In the first 8 games this season Oklahoma State was able to force 30 turnovers or 3.75 per game! That is a ridiculous amount.  They were able to do this by taking risks on defense.  They over purse the quarterback, try to strip the football and jump routes looking for interceptions.  Last night, this strategy didn’t work, and a patient Kansas State team was able to take advantage.  Thankfully, their offense is so solid that they were able to win without relying on their defense to provide them with a short field.  When matched up with other aggressive Big 12 teams, look for Oklahoma State to get back to their normal self in forcing turnovers.  However, if forced to face a power / running offense again like Kansas State, we will have to see if their offense can make up the difference again.

Week 10 Picks Review:

This week I went 6-2 overall missing two silly ACC games.  I’m not sure why I thought Duke would win, I probably was just (1) really hoping that Miami would embarrass themselves and (2) wanting Virginia Tech’s close win last week to look better.  My other miss was on Wake Forest who took a 7 pt lead into halftime, but just couldn’t score at all in the second half.  On the other hand, the NCState vs UNC game went like I thought it would.  NCState showed up at home and UNC didn’t on the road; just like they have all season. 

College Football Picks: Week 10

This week boasts quite a nice slate of top 15 matchups.  We have South Carolina going to Arkansas, Kansas State at Oklahoma State and of course, what is being billed as the “game of the century”, LSU and Alabama.  But first, let’s take a quick look at last week’s picks of which I missed my picks of Miami, Clemson, Michigan State, and Rutgers and went 7-4.

The Good:

Boston College over Maryland – I saw this one coming and am happy to say that I called a very bad BC team winning at Maryland.  As of writing this, BC is getting crushed by FSU, which begs the question: How bad is the bottom of the ACC? My answer: VERY VERY BAD!  That being said, I hated to see how badly my Hokies struggled with the cellar dwelling Dukies.  It was quite an awful showing.  Hopefully the bye week will help to prepare for Georgia Tech’s annoying triple option offense. 

The Bad:

Clemson over Georgia Tech – Wow! Wow! Wow! I not see this one coming at all! But, all I can say is, "typical Clemson". 

The Ugly:

Michigan State over Nebraska – I totally misread this one too.  I bought into MSU after their lucky last minute win over Wisconsin.  After this past week, I have no better idea on what is going on in the Big Ten right now.  But, if I had to, I would actually put my money on Wisconsin winning the “Leaders” division (what a joke of a name!).  I don’t see Penn State winning any of there last 3 games and that leaves Wisconsin to fill in the gap.  Then, I think that Nebraska will win the tiebreaker with Michigan State to win the “Legends” (again, what a joke!).

Ok, now on to this week. 

The ACC!

Florida State over Boston College – I posted my thoughts on this game earlier.  See the post below.

Virginia over Maryland – And… back to the UVA bandwagon.  This pick is actually more based on how poorly Maryland has played as of late, losing 4 straight.  This week will make it 5 and UVA will become bowl eligible. 

NC State over UNC – I’m going to excuse NC State’s shellacking they took last week at FSU.  They have just played horribly on the road this season, but I like them at home this week because UNC has the same problem.  NC State upsets UNC in a close one.

Duke over Miami – In a matchup of the two teams with the worst home field advantages in the ACC, Duke puts a full game together and wins this one on the road (well, actually it’s going to be a neutral site).  

Wake Forest over Notre Dame – Notre Dame is just too mistake prone this year; they are tied for second to last in turnover margin (#118).  They make too many of them in this one and Wake capitalizes at home.

The Top 25!

Oklahoma State over Kansas State – Kansas State was exposed last week by OU.  I don’t think this one is close.  Oklahoma State impresses and moves to #2 in the rankings.

Arkansas over South Carolina – This is South Carolina’s first game against a ranked team all year, and its on the road.  Arkansas wins easily, by at least 2 TD’s.

LSU over Alabama – The mad-hatter does is again!  There will be a play in this game where LSU does something DUMB, which in turn pays off mightily.  An onside kick, going for it on fourth down or a fake punt will do!  I think LSU is just to hyper and energetic for Alabama and somehow pulls it out.  No matter how this game ends, be on the lookout for a blog post on how they should NOT be allowed to replay the game in the BCS National Championship.

That’s it for this week.  There just aren’t any other intriguing games this weekend that I could find, unless you think that Rutgers vs South Florida is compelling.  In that case, I'll take Rutgers.  If you think of any others of note let me know and I’ll give my thoughts. 

College Football Picks: Week 10 (Part 1)

I needed to get up my pick for the Florida State / Boston College before the start of the game tonight.  So here is a short post on that game.  The rest of the picks should be up later on tonight or at some point tomorrow. 

Florida State over Boston College – In FSU’s three losses this year they have allowed 31 ppg and then 8.4 ppg in their 5 wins.   This game comes down to which FSU team decides to show up.  I say it’s the 8.4 ppg one; and, considering how bad BC is, I’d be pretty confident of that.