Power Rankings: Week 3

The Dallas Hokie Power Rankings - Week 3

1)     Alabama (Prev. 1)

2)     Oregon (3)

3)     LSU (4)

4)     Georgia (5)

5)     West Virginia (6)

6)     Florida State (7)

7)     Oklahoma (8)

8)     Clemson (9)

9)     South Carolina (10)

10)   Kansas State (13)

11)   Ohio State (14)

12)   Michigan (15)

13)   Texas (NR)

14)   Stanford (NR)

15)   USC (2) 

Dropped From Rankings: Virginia Tech (12), Michigan State (11)

On the verge (in no particular order) - TCU, Notre Dame, Florida

Three teams in the top 15 lost this week, with USC, Virginia Tech and Michigan State all falling to lower ranked teams.  VT and MSU both dropped out of the rankings and USC fell all the way to 15 right behind Stanford.  Texas also jumped in this week with their big win over Ole Miss.   The rest of top 10 remained in the same order, with every team but Alabama moving up a spot.  Alabama is clearly the #1 team in the nation after their performance this week and the loss by USC.  The top 10 is really starting to pull away from the pack, with every team winning big this week.  As the season moves on, look to see which of these teams fall and which can survive and move on. 

BCS Projections

As promised from yesterday, here are my Preseason BCS Projections for this coming year.  

Keep in mind that again this year the Orange Bowl has the last pick of teams, so they will most definitely be stuck with the Big East champion.  Fiesta gets the first pick.  Keep a lookout tomorrow, for the first ever Dallas Hokie Power Rankings! 

BCS Title Game:  USC (Pac-12 Champ) over LSU (SEC Champ)

Rose Bowl: Oregon (At-Large) vs. Michigan (B1G Champ)

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (Big12 Champ vs. Florida State (At-Large)

Sugar Bowl: Georgia (At-Large) vs. Michigan State (At-Large)

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (ACC Champ) vs. South Florida (Big East Champ)

If you want to see my thoughts on these pics, check out yesterdays Conference Race Projections.

10 BCS Questions (Part 1)

We all know by this point what should happen in the BCS come Sunday night.  Here are a few sites that are all projecting the same matchups in the five BCS Bowl games. 

ESPN: http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls

CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

YAHOO: http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1297268&PT=4&PR=2

However, I've come up with 10 questions that may get you thinking otherwise.   

The first three are listed here with more to come!

1)     What if Oklahoma State Destroys Oklahoma?

This is the burning question among most of the “experts” out there.  Would Oklahoma State warrant jumping Alabama in the BCS Standings with an impressive win over Oklahoma?  With this win I would expect OSU to be the #2 ranked team in all the computers.   This would happen because Oklahoma is currently the 5^th ranked team in the computers and a victory over them would sure help the ranking. 

With being ranked #2 in the computers, OSU would just need for about 1/3 of the voters to select them ahead of Alabama on their ballots.   I am really convinced that this is a possibility.  Ten percent of the voters already don’t have Alabama as the number #2 team and I think a big win by the Cowboys and the desire for there to not be a rematch could increase to the needed number of around 33%. 

Still, it is important to note that Oklahoma State would also need to jump Stanford and Virginia Tech.   If they remain behind those two teams in some of the polls, I would say that they would need to be ranked #2 in upwards of 50% of the polls. 

2)     What if LSU loses a close one to Georgia?

While I think this is very unlikely, it could happen; and, remember that Georgia is probably the 3^rd best team in the SEC right now.  The biggest impact of this result would be in the computers.  The most likely scenario would be for OSU to jump both LSU and Alabama and get the #1 computer vote (assuming a win over Oklahoma).  LSU would most likely fall to #2 and Alabama would fall to #3.  This would make it much easier for OSU to jump Alabama and would just require a little love from the voters.

The bigger question here is how would the voters end up voting? Who would receive the #1 votes in the polls? Would Oklahoma State be worthy of any #1 votes? If I were a voter, I would have a hard time ranking Alabama ahead of LSU because of the fact that LSU was required to play an extra game just because they beat Alabama.  I would also have a hard time keeping LSU at #1.  I think a loss to Georgia would expose both LSU and Alabama and should make some of the voters think about that #1 spot.  In the end I don’t think the polls would chance much and would hope that the voters would not punish LSU with a close loss to a good team. 

I would expect LSU to remain #1 in the polls and be followed by Alabama.  Stanford, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State would be very closely bunched at #s 3, 4 and 5.  Because of the way the BCS works, being ranked ahead of another team doesn’t really matter if you are close in votes.  

It would come down to the computers and like I said above Oklahoma State would be ranked #1 and would have a good chance of jumping into the National Title Game. I think this is the best case to avoid a rematch.

3)     What if Oklahoma State loses?

This would be an interesting scenario.  I don’t think that Stanford would warrant being voted ahead of Alabama because they would not have won their conference and I don’t think Virginia Tech could beat out Alabama in the computers.  In the end I think this means we are most certainly headed for a rematch. 

Even if LSU were to lose to Georgia, I don't think it would matter.  LSU and Alabama would maintain their ranking at #1 and #2 and Stanford and Virginia Tech will not have the computer ranking numbers to jump either of the SEC schools. 

SEC West Scenarios

I’ve gone through all the scenarios and have decided that the only way that we avoid a rematch in the NCG is for Auburn to beat Alabama.  So go out there WAR EAGLE it up this weekend!  (Arkansas would also need to lose a game, but they could lose to either LSU or Georgia).

Here is a quick handicap of different NCG scenarios and the SEC west:

LSU vs non-SEC - Auburn over Bama & LSU over Ark or UGA over Ark

LSU vs Arkansas - Auburn over Bama & Ark over LSU & Ark over UGA 

                           OR Bama over Auburn & Ark over LSU & UGA over Bama

LSU vs Alabama - Bama over Auburn & LSU over Ark

Alabama vs Arkansas - Bama over Auburn & Bama over UGA & Ark over LSU 

Here are more details on how I came to these conclusions.

LSU:

If LSU beats Arkansas they will go to the SEC championship game.  I am convinced this will essentially clinch a berth in the NCG even if they go on to lose to Georgia.  An interesting note about this is that this could lead to there being 3 SEC schools in the BCS (the one caveat to break the 2 per league rule is that if two non-champions are ranked 1-2).  I can’t believe that this would be a possibility but it’s something to keep an eye on.  If Auburn beats Alabama, LSU will play a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

If LSU loses to Arkansas they will most likely fall below Alabama and Arkansas (voters put higher value on late season losses – that’s just the way it is).  Alabama would win the tiebreaker and head to the SEC championship game (assuming a victory over Auburn).  A win by Alabama in that game would mean an Alabama /Arkansas rematch in the NCG and a win by Georgia would mean an LSU / Arkansas rematch (again 3 BCS teams in the NCG).  If Alabama were to lose to Auburn, Arkansas would go to the SEC championship game, where a win by Arkansas would mean an LSU / Arkansas rematch.  A win by Georgia and we would avoid a rematch and LSU would a non-SEC opponent.

LSU can clinch a berth in the NCG with a win over Arkansas.  They can also earn a berth with a loss and an Auburn win or a Georgia win (in the SEC championship).   The only BCS bowl that LSU can go to is the National Championship.  

Alabama:

If Alabama beats Auburn and LSU beats Arkansas they will clinch a berth in the NCG against LSU.  However, if Arkansas beats LSU, Alabama would need to beat Georgia in order to go the NCG.  A win in that came would mean a rematch with Arkansas.  A loss in that game would mean an Arkansas / LSU rematch.

If Alabama loses to Auburn they will fall out of National Title contention (unless OSU, VT and Stanford all lose). 

Alabama will clinch a berth in the NCG with a win over Auburn and an LSU win; or, an Arkansas win and a win over Georgia.  Alabama would be a popular choice for the Sugar bowl if there isn’t an all SEC NCG. 

Arkansas

If Arkansas beats LSU and Alabama beats Auburn, Arkansas will clinch a berth in the NCG.  They would play Alabama if Alabama beat Georgia and would play LSU if Georgia beats Alabama.  If Auburn loses to Alabama, Arkansas would need to beat Georgia to be in the NCG.  If they lost to Georgia, LSU would face a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

If Arkansas loses to LSU they will fall out of National Title contention and most likely out of a BCS bowl game. 

Arkansas can clinch a berth in the NCG with a win and an Alabama win; or, with an Auburn win and then beating Georgia in the SEC championship.  Arkansas will most likely not have a chance to attend another BCS bowl game because Alabama would be the more attractive option. 

Alternate BCS Scenarios

Just for fun, here are a few BCS Scenarios to take a look at. 

--> UPDATE: I am assuming Houston loses to SMU, Tulsa or Southern Miss.  However, even if they don't, they won't play for the national championship unless every other team (except 1) has 2 losses.

SCENARIO 1

What if Oklahoma Beats Oklahoma State?

Post Championship Game Weekend Rankings

1)      LSU (12-0) (Wins against Ole Miss, Ark, Georgia)

2)      Alabama (11-1) (Wins against Georgia So, Auburn)

3)      Oregon (12-1) (Wins against USC, Oregon St, ASU)

4)      Oklahoma (11-1) (Win against Baylor, Iowa St, Oklahoma St)

5)      Oklahoma State (11-1) (Wins against, Iowa St, Loss to OU)

6)      Virginia Tech (12-1) (Wins against UNC, UVA, Clemson)

7)      Stanford (11-1) (Wins against Cal, Notre Dame)

8)      Arkansas (10-2) (Win against Miss St; Loss to LSU)   

9)      Boise St (11-1) (Wins against San Diego St, Wyoming, New Mexico)

10)    Kansas State (10-2) (Wins against Texas, Iowa St)

11)    Wisconsin (11-2) (Wins against Illinois, Penn St, Michigan St)

12)    Clemson (11-2) (Wins against NC State, South Caroline; Loss to VT)

13)    Nebraska (10-2) (Wins against Michigan, Iowa)

14)    Georgia (10-3) (Wins against Kentucky, GT; Loss to LSU)

15)    Michigan State (10-3) (Wins against Iowa, Indiana; Loss to Wisconsin)

16)    South Carolina (10-2) (Wins against Citadel, Loss to Clemson)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

ROSE BOWL: #11 Wisconsin vs. #3 Oregon

SUGAR BOWL: #5 Oklahoma State vs. #12 Clemson

FIESTA BOWL: #4 Oklahoma vs. #7 Stanford

ORANGE BOWL: #6 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

SCENARIO 2

What if Arkansas Beats LSU?

Post Championship Game Weekend Rankings

1)      Oklahoma State (12-0) (Wins against, Iowa St, OU)

2)      Alabama (12-1) (Wins against Georgia So, Auburn, Georgia)

3)      Oregon (12-1) (Wins against USC, Oregon St, ASU)

4)      Arkansas (11-1) (Win against Miss St, LSU)   

5)      LSU (11-1) (Wins against Ole Miss; Loss to Georgia)

6)      Virginia Tech (12-1) (Wins against UNC, UVA, Clemson)

7)      Stanford (11-1) (Wins against Cal, Notre Dame)

8)      Boise St (11-1) (Wins against San Diego St, Wyoming, New Mexico)

9)      Oklahoma (10-2) (Win against Baylor, Iowa St; Loss to Oklahoma St)

10)    Kansas State (10-2) (Wins against Texas, Iowa St)

11)    Wisconsin (11-2) (Wins against Illinois, Penn St, Michigan St)

12)    Clemson (11-2) (Wins against NC State, South Caroline; Loss to VT)

13)    Nebraska (10-2) (Wins against Michigan, Iowa)

14)    Georgia (10-3) (Wins against Kentucky, GT; Loss to LSU)

15)    Michigan State (10-3) (Wins against Iowa, Indiana; Loss to Wisconsin)

16)    South Carolina (10-2) (Wins against Citadel, Loss to Clemson)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #1 Oklahoma State vs. #2 Alabama

ROSE BOWL: #11 Wisconsin vs. #3 Oregon

SUGAR BOWL: #4 Arkansas vs. #12 Clemson

FIESTA BOWL: #9 Oklahoma vs. #7 Stanford

ORANGE BOWL: #6 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

I love this scenario!  Still, the key will be in seeing if LSU falls below Arkansas.  I think they would, since Arkansas would have just beaten them and the pollsters heavily penalize recent losses, putting Alabama in the SEC championship game.  The interesting thing is that Arkansas would automatically qualify if they finish #4, meaning that LSU would be left out!

SCENARIO 3

Now for a fun and very unlikely scenario! Here is what needs to happen in order for VT to make the NCG!

The first step in this process is that either Oklahoma State or LSU have to lose twice.  Oklahoma State has no chance of losing to Iowa State and LSU has no chance of losing to Ole Miss.  So the only chance is for LSU to lose to Arkansas, still make the SEC championship game and then lose again to Georgia.  In order for LSU to still make the championship game, Arkansas needs to lose to Miss State (who has probably faced the toughest schedule in the SEC thus far and could easily pull this off).  This will also serve to eliminate Arkansas from the picture. 

Additionally, Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma, Auburn needs to beat Alabama, and USC, Oregon State or Pac12 South Champion needs to beat Oregon.  Then VT needs to beat Clemson in the ACC Championship game.  In the end here is what the standings would most likely look like (I went through the changes in the standings week by week to figure them out; that is why Alabama is #5 even after losing to Auburn and Boise stayed back at #9)

1)      Oklahoma State (12-0) (Wins against, Iowa St, OU)

2)      Virginia Tech (12-1) (Wins against UNC, UVA, Clemson)

3)      Stanford (11-1) (Wins against Cal, Notre Dame)

4)      Oregon (11-2) (Wins against Oregon St, ASU; Loss to USC)

5)      Alabama (10-2) (Wins against Georgia So; Loss to Auburn)

6)      Oklahoma (10-2) (Win against Baylor, Iowa St, Loss to Oklahoma St)

7)      LSU (11-2) (Wins against Ole Miss; Losses to Arkansas, Georgia)

8)      Arkansas (10-2) (Win against LSU; Loss to Miss St.)

9)      Boise St (11-1) (Wins against San Diego St, Wyoming, New Mexico)

10)    Georgia (11-2) (Wins against Kentucky, GT, LSU)

11)    Kansas State (10-2) (Wins against Texas, Iowa St)

12)    Wisconsin (11-2) (Wins against Illinois, Penn St, Michigan St)

13)    Clemson (11-2) (Wins against NC State, South Caroline; Loss to VT)

14)    Nebraska (10-2) (Wins against Michigan, Iowa)

15)    Michigan State (10-3) (Wins against Iowa, Indiana; Loss to Wisconsin)

16)    South Carolina (10-2) (Wins against Citadel, Loss to Clemson)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #1 Oklahoma State vs. #2 Virginia Tech

ROSE BOWL: #12 Wisconsin vs. #4 Oregon

SUGAR BOWL: #10 Georgia vs. #3 Stanford  

FIESTA BOWL: #6 Oklahoma vs. #5 Alabama

ORANGE BOWL: #13 Clemson vs. #? WVU

The orange bowl could choose Alabama here and very well might, due to how low ranked Clemson would be.  If that did happen, I think that Clemson would be chosen by the Sugar bowl with Stanford in the Fiesta. 



BCS Projections

Everyone seems to be putting up BCS projections these days.  So here are mine with a detailed explaination of why the schools that I'm projecting are chosen.   

I’ll start off with the BCS Championship Game.  As much as I want chaos and for LSU to lose, I just don’t see that happening.  Also, Oklahoma State will finally beat Oklahoma and stay undefeated as well.

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: LSU vs. Oklahoma State

That means that LSU wins the SEC and Oklahoma State wins the Big 12.  I will also assume Oregon wins out to win the Pac 12.  Assuming Clemson and Virginia Tech win out, these projections won’t vary too much in regards to which team wins (see my final paragraph for notes on that).  But for argument’s sake, I think VT wins the ACC.  In the Big East, any champion will be in the same boat, no one is going to want them.  With Cincinnati losing their QB for the year, I think WVU wins out to win the Big East.  Now to the Big mess 10.  I think that Michigan State will win out along with Wisconsin for a rematch in the Championship game.  I’ll take Wisconsin this time around to win the Big 10.  A few other games to note, is that I think Houston will either lose at Tulsa or to Southern Miss in the C-USA championship game taking them out of the BCS picture. 

To recap, here are your conference champions:

SEC: LSU

Big 12: Oklahoma State

Pac 12: Oregon

ACC: Virginia Tech

Big East: WVU

Post Championship Game Weekend Rankings

1)     LSU (12-0) (Wins against Ole Miss, Ark, Georgia)

2)     Oklahoma State (12-0) (Wins against, Iowa St, OU)

3)     Alabama (11-1) (Wins against Georgia So, Auburn)

4)     Oregon (12-1) (Wins against USC, Oregon St, ASU)

5)     Virginia Tech (12-1) (Wins against UNC, UVA, Clemson)

6)     Stanford (11-1) (Wins against Cal, Notre Dame)

7)     Arkansas (10-2) (Win against Miss St; Loss to LSU)

8)     Oklahoma (10-2) (Win against Baylor, Iowa St; Loss to Oklahoma St)

9)     Boise St (11-1) (Wins against San Diego St, Wyoming, New Mexico)

10)   Kansas State (10-2) (Wins against Texas, Iowa St)

11)   Wisconsin (11-2) (Wins against Illinois, Penn St, Michigan St)

12)   Clemson (11-2) (Wins against NC State, South Caroline; Loss to VT)

13)   Nebraska (10-2) (Wins against Michigan, Iowa)

14)   Georgia (10-3) (Wins against Kentucky, GT; Loss to LSU)

15)   Michigan State (10-3) (Wins against Iowa, Indiana; Loss to Wisconsin)

16)   South Carolina (10-2) (Wins against Citadel, Loss to Clemson)

The last few spots on there are pretty much up for grabs.  Keep a lookout for TCU, Southern Miss or Houston to take one of those top 16 spots and automatically qualify for the BCS (because they are ahead of the Big East Champion)

With that in place, here are how the teams will be picked. 

1)      The conference champions are placed:

ROSE BOWL: Wisconsin vs. Oregon

SUGAR BOWL: None (LSU is in NCG)

FIESTA BOWL: None (OKState is in NCG)

ORANGE BOWL: Virginia Tech

2)      The bowls that lose their conference champion to the NCG get to pick:

SUGAR BOWL: Alabama

FIESTA BOW: Oklahoma

3)      At large schools are selected (Fiesta picks first, then Sugar, then Orange):

FIESTA BOWL: Stanford

SUGAR BOWL: Clemson (Chosen over Boise St, Nebraska, Michigan State – Kansas State and Arkansas are ineligible because of the rule only allowing 2 teams per conference; also, if a non-bcs conference champion ends up in the top 16, they will have to be chosen for this game or the Orange bowl)

ORANGE BOWL: WVU (Big East Champ)

Finally, here are your BCS Bowl games and I personally would love to see each one of them:

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #1 LSU vs. #2 Oklahoma State

ROSE BOWL: #11 Wisconsin vs. #4 Oregon

SUGAR BOWL: #3 Alabama vs. #12 Clemson

FIESTA BOWL: #8 Oklahoma vs. #6 Stanford

ORANGE BOWL: #5 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

That last at large pick for the Sugar Bowl is definitely a huge toss-up.  I could easily see Boise State being selected for that game and would really enjoy seeing how they matched up with Alabama.  But, if that did happen I would hate to see either team win it!  Count Boise in for sure if Clemson stumbles against South Carolina.  Also, if Clemson wins the ACC championship game I would give a bigger nod to Boise being selected over VT, but it would still be close.

Game of the Century? LSU vs Alabama Analysis.

Let the debate begin.  Did last night’s 1 vs. 2 showdown live up to all the hype and expectations? The answer will swing on the answer to the following question: did we see two great defenses or two terrible offenses?

Below is a list of LSU’s opponents and their first three quarter scoring output (I’m just doing first three quarter scores, because several teams had late garbage time TDs):

Oregon (13 pts, 14 pts in the fourth quarter in a close game)

Northwestern State (3 pts)

Miss State (6 pts)

West Virginia (21 pts)

Kentucky (0 pts)

Florida (11pts)

Tennessee (7 pts)

Auburn (3 pts)

In case you were wondering that’s 5 of 8 teams equaling Alabama’s production.  Additionally, 4 of 8 teams were able to score TDs in relevant time; something Alabama cannot claim.  To add to that, only 1 of those teams is currently ranked in the top 20 of the BCS. 

I do still think that each of these defenses are extremely fast and explosive and very well might be the two best in the country.  And the hype of this game probably made them play even better.  But, shouldn’t a national champion contender be able to score more efficiently than sub par SEC opponents and unranked (after this week’s lost to Louisville) Big East squads? The point is that Alabama looked terrible on offense last night (I don’t even want to get started on special teams).  I was not impressed and do not think we can say it was just stellar defense that caused the game to end with 5 total field goals.  I definitely don’t think that it warrant its billing of “game of the century”.

Still, I do think that LSU deserves to be the #1 team in the country and they do have an inside track to the SEC championship and National Championship game.  But don’t book your flights just yet! With a trip to an impressive looking Arkansas team looming, look out for a possible three way tie for the SEC west championship.  Arkansas could still win the West outright with a win over LSU and a loss by Alabama (they do have to travel to Auburn).  

In the end, I think LSU wins the SEC and heads to the National Championship game.  In that case, I think they will face Stanford, Oklahoma State, or even Oklahoma.  Each of these teams have very explosive offenses and are each in the top 6 in the country in scoring offense; OKState (2), Stanford (3), Oklahoma (6).  They could easily challenge LSU’s tough defense and could then pressure LSU’s struggling offense.  The winner of this game will finally answer the question I asked in the outset: was it two great defenses or two terrible offenses? 

In case you were wondering; below are Alabama’s first 8 opponent’s scoring outputs (it’s the same type of deal as I wrote above concerning LSU):

Kent State (7 pts)

            Penn State (3 pts)

            North Texas (0 pts)

            Arkansas (14 pts)

            Florida (10 pts)

            Vanderbilt (0 pts)

            Ole Miss (7 pts)

            Tennessee (6 pts)