Picks: Week 2

After a mediocre start to the season, going 2 for 4 in my high confidence picks and 3 for 8 overall, I’m looking to get back on track this week.  The way this works is that I have to pick all matchups between top 25 teams, all conference matchups in the ACC and Big 12 and then I can fill in with whatever other games interest me.  I have to pick a minimum of 8 games per week.  Once the season get rolling there will be significantly more each week.  Also I pick all games against the spread and straight up. 

I will star 4 picks each week that I would “bet” if I had the money.  These are my confidence picks and I will track them throughout the year.  Finally, I will also keep a record of my straight up picks in ACC, Big12 and top 25 games.  

Standings as of last week:

Confidence Picks: 2-2

ACC: 2-0

BIG12: 0-0

TOP25: 2-0

Here we go:

* North Carolina -10.5 over Wake Forest – North Carolina looked like they had their act together last week against Elon, while Wake struggled against Liberty.  Liberty is probably a slightly better team, but we are talking FCS here and a 62 point margin vs. a 3 point margin. I know this is the ACC and anything can happen on any week but I still think that this is an easy one, UNC wins running away. 

* Oklahoma State -10.5 over Arizona – At the rate OkState scores, the chances of this game being 10 points or closer seems very slim to me.  I could see Arizona challenging for the first half, but I think OSU pulls away at the end and stretches this to 2 or 3 scores with a few late TDs.

Penn State +10 over Virginia – I will give UVA the edge in this game straight up, but I think that Penn State fights back after getting embarrassed last week and makes this game closer than people expect.

Duke +15 over Stanford – I will ride the Duke train all year if I can.  I think that this team will play great against a Stanford team that struggled last week.  Stanford will pull away at the end, but win by less than 2 scores. 

Texas A&M +1 over Florida – This game has been hovering around EVEN for most of the week and I think that’s where it should be.  The real question here is if the cancellation of last week’s game for A&M will make them not ready for SEC play.  But then again, I don’t think a Florida team that struggled against Bowling Green will be able to really show true SEC football.  I think the home crowd gives the Aggies the edge in this one.  They win a close one.

* Georgia -2 over Missouri – I am high on Georgia this year and since I picked them to run the table in the regular season, I will pick them here.  While I think Mizzou will come out strong, they are just not ready for SEC football and will be outmatched by UGA. 

* Michigan -21 over Air Force – I am putting my money where my mouth is on this one in saying that Michigan will bounce back from the Alabama game and will have a great season after all.  I think Denard gets his act together and UM wins big in the Big House.

Kansas State -7 over Miami (FL) – Collin Klein will take care of business at home against Miami.  I don’t think that the Hurricanes have the weapons to score with KState or the defense to stop them.  I mean, they gave up 32 to Boston College… The Wildcats cover.  

College Football Picks: Week 1

It’s the first week of the season and I have my first set of picks against the spread.  I don’t bet these picks, but I feel pretty confident about them and would if I had some spare coin.  I’ll star (*) 3 or 4 that I’m the most confident in.  I am also forcing myself to pick all top 25 matchups and any conference ACC or Big12 games. 

Tomorrow, I will be submitting a sweet new post that I am super excited about! I will be getting my incredibly witty wife, Mrs. dallas hokie, to share her thoughts on the upcoming College Football season.  You’ll see that she really knows what she is talking about.  I know guys; I totally hit it out of the park with this one.  In the meantime, check out her blog here.  

This post is Day 4 of college football preview week.  Check out Days 1-3 here:

1) Conference Race Projections
2) BSC Bowl Projections
3) Power Rankings

Enough with the intro, here are the picks!

Michigan State -7.0 over Boise State – Boise lost too much talent last year and while they have a decent team filling those spots, MSU is just too big up front on defense and will win big at home. 

* Navy +15.5 over Notre Dame – While Navy still loses this game, Notre Dame isn’t back and they don’t have a proven QB.  This first game will be rough for ND against a Navy team that has given them fits over the past few years. 

* Penn State -6.5 over Ohio – The betters have pushed this line down significantly over the week.  That is due to their lack of confidence in Penn State coming out of their off season probation mess.  I don’t think they are going to be that bad and will easily beat Ohio by a TD. 

Miami -2.5 over BC – Miami is bad… BC is terrible.  I don’t see BC winning a conference game this year.

* Clemson -3 over Auburn – I am really high on Clemson this year.  Sadly this means I think they beat VT later in the season, but it also means they beat Auburn in Atlanta. 

* Duke – 3 over FIU – Duke is back! Well, not really, but I think this is the year they finally put together some ACC wins.  They won’t beat anyone good, but will surely beat FIU by more than a FG.

Michigan +14 over Alabama – Alabama will win this game.  But, since I am high on Michigan this year, I’ll take them to make this game closer than expected.  Also, it should be noted that this line has risen 3 pts over the week, meaning that Vegas thinks Michigan will make it closer than 14 pts.  And Vegas is usually right…

Virginia Tech -7 over Georgia Tech – I will put out a full game preview this weekend and break down this game a little more.  But for now, I think VT comes out strong.  I think their offense shines and outscores GT.  I can see a score similar to last year.  Right now I’d say VT 31 GT 21.  That could change over the weekend though.  

Preseason Conference Projections

Its that time of year again! I have done a moderate research and some random guessing to come up with my Preseason Conference Champs and BCS Bowls Projections! It will be a two part post with the Bowl Projections coming out tomorrow.  I will also be keeping my own top 25 this year, so that should be fun too.  Keep a look out later in the week for my weekly picks as well as other thoughts on the season.  

Below I have written up how I think each major conference will play out this year. And yes, I still included the Big East.

In order to make this interesting, I’m going to pick the top 3 teams from each conference.  For conferences with a championship game, that will include the two division champs and then a third “wild card” team.  For the others it will just be the top three.  The rankings next the team represent their "pre-conference championship game" record. 

SEC

LSU – West (12-0)

Georgia – East (12-0)

Alabama – (11-1)

Georgia wins the East by not having to play any of the powerhouse teams from the West.  With probably the easiest schedule in America, the bulldogs go into the SEC championship game undefeated.  They lose big in the championship game.

PAC-12

USC – South (11-1)

Oregon – North (11-1)

Washington State– (9-3)

USC wins the south and beats Oregon twice in the process.  They will have home field advantage for both the regular season game and the championship game and win both in close fashion.  USC will lose one close game this year on the road.  Washington State will have a nice under new head coach Mike Leach. 

B1G

Michigan – Legends (10-2)

Wisconsin – Leaders (9-3)

Michigan State – (10-2)

If anyone beside Wisconsin wins the Leaders division, it will be the biggest upset of the year.  With OSU and PSU ineligible, all they have to do is beat Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue.  On the other side Michigan finally beats MSU and clinches the Legends division and then beats a worse than expected Wisconsin team. 

BIG12

Oklahoma (11-1)

West Virginia (10-2)

Oklahoma State (9-3)

West Virginia will beat both Oklahoma and Texas in their first season in the Big 12 but won’t be able to avoid the upset (twice).  That leaves OU and OSU to fight it out in the bedlam, which (sadly) Oklahoma should win.  

ACC

Virginia Tech – Coastal (10-2)

Florida State - Atlantic (11-1)

Clemson – Atlantic (10-2)

Virginia Tech will lose to both FSU and Clemson during the regular season, but will still win the Coastal.  They will avenge their loss to FSU in the conference championship game.  FSU beats Clemson and I don’t trust any ACC team to not trip up at some point (thus the loss for FSU and for Clemson).

BIG EAST

USF – (8-4)

Louisville – (8-4)

Rutgers – (7-5)

This is a crap shoot of a conference these days.  I pick USF because they are from Florida and should be able to recruit better players (in theory).  It really doesn’t matter…