10 BCS Questions (Part 3)

If you've haven't already read questions 1-7, check them out here:

8)     What would a 12-team playoff look like!?

Here is what I would love to see as a playoff system for the current Bowl Subdivision (former 1-A). 

First, a selection committee (that heavily relied upon the BCS rankings) would select the top 4 teams.  They would be given a bye   Also, these seeds will only be given to teams that have won their conference.  This is because, in most conferences, they would already be required to play an extra game and I think conference champions should be rewarded.  This year the top 4 seeds would be:

1 seed: LSU

2 seed: Oklahoma State

3 seed: Virginia Tech

4 seed: Oregon

Then, the committee would rank the next 8 schools with the higher seed hosting the first round game.  Also, all auto tie-ins will still be awarded and there will be a three team per conference limit with a requirement that schools from the same conference will not meet until the semifinals.

5 seed: Alabama

6 seed: Stanford

7 seed: Arkansas

8 seed: Houston

9 seed: Boise State

10 seed: Wisconsin

11 seed: Kansas State

12 seed: West Virginia

With the games:

West Virginia @ Alabama (6:00 PM ET)

Kansas State @ Stanford (9:30 PM ET)

Wisconsin @ Arkansas (3:30 PM ET)

Boise State @ Houston (12:00PM ET)

Traditional bowl affiliations would be used for the next playoff games (if PAC-10 and BIG-10 schools are chosen, the higher seed will play in the Rose Bowl) with the losers of the opening round games being matched up in the Capital One Bowl and Cotton Bowl.  We would see:

Alabama/WVU vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl

Stanford/Kansas State vs Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl

Arkansas/Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl

Houston/Boise State vs LSU in the Sugar Bowl

After the bowls the teams would be reseeded according to original ranking.  The lowest seed remaining will play at the home of the highest seed remaining.  The other two schools will play at the home of the higher seed

Lowest Seed @ Highest Seed

Lower Seed @ Higher Seed

The championship game would then be held the following week at a pre-determined rotating site among the now "6 BCS Bowls". 

How’s that sound!? Let me know your thoughts...

9)     What should be the biggest complaint about the BCS?

The voters don’t watch all the games and aren’t instructed on how to vote properly.  The voters try to be objetive!

The computers are the tool used to measure objectivity.  They are set to determine, based on mere wins and losses, who is the best team. 

Now, even computers have a bias.  The guys who right the programs have to assign value to wins and losses and how much strength of schedule effects the ranking.  I would love to see how some of the ranking are determined but they aren't published! To solve this I would also like to see another six computers added to the equation and require the voters to publish their built in biases.  

Anyways, back to the original preface.  My point is that the voters should vote on which team looks the best! Which team is playing the best right now and which team would beat another team in their opinion.  The voters should not be worrying about the so-called “body of work”! That is for the computers to mess with.  They are paid to either coach, watch or write about sports.  They know when a team “looks” good and “looks” bad. 

Vote on that and quit trying to do what the computers are there to do!

10)       What could keep LSU AND Alabama out of the NCG?

So, what if come Sunday morning we hear that the NCAA has been investigating both LSU and Alabama this entire year and that they will be handing down significant sanctions upon both schools.   We come to find out that both schools have been providing significant benefits to players and will be put on post-season restrictions for this year and next year.  

The world would rejoice and we would probably see Oklahoma State vs either Virginia Tech or Stanford in the National Championship Game! Georgia and Arkansas will both go to BCS games and everyone would be so much happier with life and the BCS! 

The first round games would be held the week after the conference championship games. 

10 BCS Questions (Part 2)

To continue my post from earlier, here are the next 4 questions about the BCS.  These questions have to do with the other BCS games.

4)     What if Houston loses to Southern Miss?

This creates an interesting scenario for another team to jump into the BCS Bowl games.  Assuming all else goes according to plan, the teams listed below would be eligible for at-Large bids.  Also, it is important to remember that if Houston loses and TCU makes it into the top 16, they will earn a spot in a BCS game (likely they sugar). 

Stanford

Boise State

Oklahoma

Kansas State

Michigan

The Wisconsin/Michigan State loser may still be eligible and Baylor may jump into the mix of top 14 teams.  But for now, lets assume those five. 

The projection all along has been that the Sugar Bowl takes Michigan and that the Fiesta Bowl will take Stanford to play Oklahoma State.  The Sugar Bowl could take an 11-1 Boise State team, a 10-2 Kansas State team or a 9-3 Oklahoma team.  I’m not sure who the team of choice would be.  Boise State would bring the best ranking and record.  However, they would be far less of a draw for the audience.  Kansas State brings a better record than Oklahoma but doesn’t have as large of a fan base.  Oklahoma will be coming off of a loss and will be ranked lowest of the three.  Sadly, I think that the Sugar bowl will decide to match up the “traditional” powers and we will see a Michigan vs Oklahoma game in the Sugar Bowl.  Personally, I would love to see Boise State in this game.

If Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State were to lose this weekend, they would also be in line for discussion here.  I think both of those teams would be selected before any of the other options listed above (Oklahoma could be chosen over VT).  Oklahoma State would draw a huge local crowd and the bowls know that Virginia Tech travels extremely well. 

5)     What is the most interesting scenario?

I think that the most interesting outcome would be if Georgia beats LSU, Oklahoma State jumps to #2 in the rankings and Houston loses (but doesn’t fall out of the top 14).  The first consequence would mean that either LSU or Alabama would be completely left out of the BCS picture.  The Fiesta Bowl would then pick between Oklahoma and Kansas State.  After this the only other at-large candidates would be Stanford, Boise State, or Houston.  Michigan would not jump the two spots needed to become eligible since Georgia was victorious.  The Fiesta would take Stanford and I think the Sugar would choose WVU (assuming a Cincinnati victory on Saturday).  I think the Mountaineers would be a bigger draw and they would want to avoid a rematch between Boise State and Georgia.  The Orange Bowl would then match up the Hokies with Boise State!

6)     Can VT get an at-large bid if they lose?

VT would need the following to happen by my logic:

1)     Houston Loss

2)     LSU / Alabama NCG

3)     Oklahoma Loss and fall below 14

4)     Georgia loss to LSU

Here is how I arrived at that conclusion.

There will be 4 at-large spots available so the Hokies need to be the 4^th most attractive among the following teams:

Team	Ahead of VT by…	Ineligible or behind VT by…
2) Alabama	Remaining #2 or LSU win	Georgia win and OSU in NCG
3) Oklahoma State	Loss to Oklahoma	Win over Oklahoma (auto bid)
4) Stanford	Always (Top 4 team)	Never
6) Houston	Win over USM (auto bid)	Loss to USM
7) Boise State	Never (VT travels better)	Always
8) Arkansas	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
9) Oregon	Never	Win Conference or fall below 14
10) Oklahoma	Loss to OSU and remain in top 14	Win over OSU or falling below 14
11) Kansas State	OSU in NCG and chosen for Fiesta	OSU not in NCG or not chosen as replacement
12) South Carolina	Never (2 teams per conference)	Always
13) Michigan State	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
14) Georgia	Winning SEC and LSU/Bama rematch in NCG	Losing to LSU and OSU in NCG
15) Wisconsin	Never (Win conference, Lose and be out of top 14)	Always
16) Michigan	Jumping to 14 or higher	Not jumping into top 14 (Georgia win)

As you can see there are 8 teams that could be chosen before VT.  First of all, Stanford will be going to BCS bowl and will take one of the spots.  Secondly, either Alabama or Georgia will take another spot.  That leaves Houston, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Michigan and Georgia (only if we have an Alabama / LSU NCG spot and Georgia wins the SEC Championship).   Because of the rankings, one of Oklahoma, Michigan or Georgia will have to be included and will take up a third spot.  This leaves Houston, Kansas State and two of the following: Michigan, Oklahoma and Georgia.  VT would need for all of the teams left to be ineligible and thus the requirements listed above. 

I think this is accurate, if you find some scenario that I haven’t thought of where VT is in, that I haven’t thought of, LET ME KNOW!

7)     Are any teams guaranteed BCS spots?

Stanford is the only team guaranteed a spot in the BCS.  There will be at least 2 at-large spots available and Michigan (if eligible) is the only team that could be chosen over Stanford.

All of the other schools could be left out if situations don't go their way.

 

10 BCS Questions (Part 1)

We all know by this point what should happen in the BCS come Sunday night.  Here are a few sites that are all projecting the same matchups in the five BCS Bowl games. 

ESPN: http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls

CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

YAHOO: http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1297268&PT=4&PR=2

However, I've come up with 10 questions that may get you thinking otherwise.   

The first three are listed here with more to come!

1)     What if Oklahoma State Destroys Oklahoma?

This is the burning question among most of the “experts” out there.  Would Oklahoma State warrant jumping Alabama in the BCS Standings with an impressive win over Oklahoma?  With this win I would expect OSU to be the #2 ranked team in all the computers.   This would happen because Oklahoma is currently the 5^th ranked team in the computers and a victory over them would sure help the ranking. 

With being ranked #2 in the computers, OSU would just need for about 1/3 of the voters to select them ahead of Alabama on their ballots.   I am really convinced that this is a possibility.  Ten percent of the voters already don’t have Alabama as the number #2 team and I think a big win by the Cowboys and the desire for there to not be a rematch could increase to the needed number of around 33%. 

Still, it is important to note that Oklahoma State would also need to jump Stanford and Virginia Tech.   If they remain behind those two teams in some of the polls, I would say that they would need to be ranked #2 in upwards of 50% of the polls. 

2)     What if LSU loses a close one to Georgia?

While I think this is very unlikely, it could happen; and, remember that Georgia is probably the 3^rd best team in the SEC right now.  The biggest impact of this result would be in the computers.  The most likely scenario would be for OSU to jump both LSU and Alabama and get the #1 computer vote (assuming a win over Oklahoma).  LSU would most likely fall to #2 and Alabama would fall to #3.  This would make it much easier for OSU to jump Alabama and would just require a little love from the voters.

The bigger question here is how would the voters end up voting? Who would receive the #1 votes in the polls? Would Oklahoma State be worthy of any #1 votes? If I were a voter, I would have a hard time ranking Alabama ahead of LSU because of the fact that LSU was required to play an extra game just because they beat Alabama.  I would also have a hard time keeping LSU at #1.  I think a loss to Georgia would expose both LSU and Alabama and should make some of the voters think about that #1 spot.  In the end I don’t think the polls would chance much and would hope that the voters would not punish LSU with a close loss to a good team. 

I would expect LSU to remain #1 in the polls and be followed by Alabama.  Stanford, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State would be very closely bunched at #s 3, 4 and 5.  Because of the way the BCS works, being ranked ahead of another team doesn’t really matter if you are close in votes.  

It would come down to the computers and like I said above Oklahoma State would be ranked #1 and would have a good chance of jumping into the National Title Game. I think this is the best case to avoid a rematch.

3)     What if Oklahoma State loses?

This would be an interesting scenario.  I don’t think that Stanford would warrant being voted ahead of Alabama because they would not have won their conference and I don’t think Virginia Tech could beat out Alabama in the computers.  In the end I think this means we are most certainly headed for a rematch. 

Even if LSU were to lose to Georgia, I don't think it would matter.  LSU and Alabama would maintain their ranking at #1 and #2 and Stanford and Virginia Tech will not have the computer ranking numbers to jump either of the SEC schools. 

College Football Picks: Week 14

As the final week of the season draws near, here are my final predictions as to how this season will play out.  I’ll pick the conference champion for each conference and all games will also be picked against the spread.  Last week, I went 2-3 against the spread on my confident picks, 8-7 overall against the spread and 12-3 overall straight-up.  Not a very quality week in that regard, hopefully I’ll do better this week.  (Check out last week’s picks to see where I went wrong and make sure to read how many points I thought Arkansas would score).  Maybe I’ll even go 38-0!!!





My most confident picks are again starred this week.

Big East:

* West Virginia – 2.5 over South Florida – Both teams are playing for their season in this game.  WVU is looking to go to a BCS bowl and USF is just trying to go bowling.  However, due to South Florida recent struggles at home, losing their past 4 games, I give the advantage to WVU by 3.   

Connecticut +9 over Cincinnati – With WVU winning on Thursday, Cincinnati will have nothing to play for in this game and UConn will be fighting for a bowl berth.  Cincinnati wins, but it’s closer than expected.

After the weekend is over WVU will be in line to represent the Big East in the Orange Bowl where they will face the ACC Champion…

ACC:

* Virginia Tech – 7 over Clemson – I don’t think that VT blows out Clemson like everyone is saying.  Clemson will come to play and Hokies better be ready.  Like a typical VT game, they will struggle early and pull away in the second half to win by 14. 

Virginia Tech will be headed to the Orange Bowl to face WVU.

PAC-12:

Oregon – 31 over UCLA – That is a HUGE number! But, in UCLA’s 6 losses this season (that’s right, 6!) they have allowed an average of 43.5 pts and have scored 14.7.  That’s a difference of just under 29 points.  I’d give 2 points to any team in the PAC-12 playing Oregon and will take Oregon to BLOW-OUT UCLA! I’m hoping for 80 in this one!

With this win, Oregon will win head to the Rose Bowl where they will face the Big Ten Champion…

Big-10:

Michigan State + 10 over Wisconsin – I was expecting Wisconsin to be favored by 3 in this game, but the 10 is just too much to give up.  MSU has the #11 rushing defense in the country and should be able to slow down Montee Ball (my vote for Heisman) enough to keep this one close.  However, Wisconsin will pull this one off in the end and MSU will not convert the Hail Mary this time!  Just to note, look for Montee Ball to jump even further into the national spotlight with a big performance in this game.  It might be the chance for him to finally get some much due Heisman consideration.

Wisconsin will head to its second straight Rose Bowl to face Oregon.

SEC:

* LSU – 13 over Georgia – I learned my lesson last week to bet against LSU.  LSU is just too fast on defense and runs the ball extremely well (#18 nationally, #2 in the SEC).  I think they win handily again.

LSU will go the NCG against… 

Big 12:

Oklahoma State – 3 over Oklahoma – Since losing Broyles, Oklahoma hasn’t looked the same.  They lost to Baylor and struggled against Iowa State (at home and not after a tragedy).  I think OSU uses their bye week well and comes out firing against Oklahoma (who has average less than 8 points in the first quarter for the season and have only scored a field goal in their last 2). 

OSU will sadly go to the …  Fiesta Bowl even though they will be the most deserving team to make the National Championship game besides LSU.  Alabama will most likely remain #2 forcing us to watch the dreaded rematch.

Conference USA:

* Houston – 14 over Southern Miss – Last week Houston faced their toughest test of the season on the road against a really good Tulsa team and won easily.  This week, Houston will be at home and will dominate even more over Southern Miss. 

Houston will go the Sugar Bowl against ...  They will most likely play Michigan according to other experts out there.  However, I’m not sold that Michigan moves into the top 14 or that the Sugar Bowl doesn’t take Stanford instead.  Be on the lookout for some alternate possibilities in my blog over the next few days about other teams like Michigan State, Kansas State, or even Boise State making BCS Bowls.  Also, don’t count out Oklahoma State or Virginia Tech even if they lose. 

And just for fun!