Heisman: Week 14

After last week, my mind has changed some on the Heisman trophy.  I have taken last week’s post and updated it to reflect what happened in last week’s games.  But first, here is how I would vote with last week's ranking in parenthesis:

1)      Montee Ball (+2)

2)      Trent Richardson (+0)

3)      Andrew Luck (+1)

4)      Matt Barkley (NR)

5)      Case Keenum (+0)

Below is the original list of players that I listed as of last week for Heisman consideration.  I’ve marked out the few players that I think are out of the race after this past weekend's games. 

Trent Richardson

Brandon Weeden

Justin Blackmon

David Wilson

Logan Thomas

Andrew Luck

Kellen Moore

Case Keenum

Landry Jones

LaMicheal James

Colin Klein

Aaron Murray

Montee Ball

Russell Wilson

Robert Griffin

Matt Barkley

First of all, LaMicheal James was injured for the second half of last week’s game and while that doesn’t mean he is any worse of a player, we saw that Oregon was still able to roll without him.  He won’t be able to make up any ground next week because of the weakness of UCLA.  Even if he has 3 TDs and 200 yards, I don’t think that gets him back into consideration.  Landry Jones had a very sub-par performance against Iowa State.  When compared to Weeden’s stats from the previous week (even though OSU lost), Jones looked far inferior.  Russell Wilson and Colin Klein were the hardest to cut from the list.  Wilson has fallen off stat-wise for the past two weeks.  His yardage, TDs, and completion percentage are all down and Montee Ball has stolen the show in Wisconsin for now.  Klein on the other hand has fallen out of the national spotlight.  He looked great against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State however with being off this week and a game against Iowa State next week.  I don’t think Klein is still in consideration.  I also think that Logan Thomas should be out, but I feel like leaving him in just for the heck of it. 

Now I’ll divide them into QB and non-QB for discussion purposes.  First let’s discuss the non-QB.

Trent Richardson – 1583 yds, 6.0 yds/attempt, 20 TDs; 3 TD rec; 9 100-yard games; 327 rec yards

Justin Blackmon – 1241 yds, 12 yds/reception, 15 TDs; scored a TD in each of teams last 10 games

David Wilson – 1595 yds, 6.3 yds/attempt, 9 TDs; 1 TD rec; 10 100-yard games; never rushed for below 82 yards

Montee Ball – 1622 yds, 6.5 yds/attempt, 29 TDs; 5 TD rec; 2 200-yard games; scored at least 2 TDs in every game

Here is how I rank the RBs/WRs with previous ranking in parenthesis:

1)      Montee Ball (2)

2)      Trent Richardson (1)

3)      David Wilson (3)

4)      Justin Blackmon (4)

Montee Ball moves ahead of Richardson this week in my mind due to his scoring 4 TD’s against a very good Penn State defense.  Richardson and Wilson both also had superb outings this week as well.  Wilson could move ahead of Richardson with a dominating performance in the ACC Championship game (200 yds, 3TDs would probably be needed).  Also, Montee Ball needs a win to remain in his perch atop the non-QB rankings.  Blackmon remains in a distant fourth, but could jump to 2^nd with Wisconsin and Virginia Tech losses. 

Now on to the QBs

Brandon Weeden – 4111 yds, 73 comp%, 34 TDs, 12 ints, 162.2 rating; 4 400-yd passing games and 1 500-yd game

Logan Thomas – 2525 yds, 60.5 comp%, 18 TDs, 7 ints, 141.2 rating; 10 TDs rushing; 23 total TDs and 2 picks in last 7 games

Andrew Luck – 3170 yds, 70 comp%, 35 TDs, 9 ints, 167.5 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 8 games with 3 or more TD Passes, at least 2 TDs in every game

Kellen Moore – 3194 yds, 73.8 comp%, 38 TDs, 7 ints, 175.2 rating; 9 games with 3 or more TD passes, at least 2 TDs in every game

Case Keenum – 4726 yds, 73.4 comp%, 43 TDs, 3 ints, 187.3 rating; 3 TDs rushing; until last week, never had a game rating below 150, 9 TDs in one game

Aaron Murray – 2698 yds, 61 comp%, 32 TDs, 10 ints, 155.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; led team to 10 straight victories

Robert Griffin – 3678 yds, 72.9 comp%, 34 TDs, 5 ints, 191.1 rating; 7 TDs rushing; thrown for 3 TDs in 8 games

Matt Barkley – 3528 yds, 69.1 comp%, 39 TDs, 5 ints, 161.2 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 2 6-TD games

Here is how I rank the QBs with their previous ranking in parenthesis.

1)      Andrew Luck (2)

2)      Matt Barkley (8)

3)      Case Keenum (3)

4)      Brandon Weeden (5)

5)      Robert Griffin (1)

6)      Aaron Murray (10)

7)      Kellen Moore (7)

8)      Logan Thomas (9)

This past week most of these quarterbacks did a significant amount to improve their Heisman profile.  However, my #1 ranked player last week, Robert Griffin III, was the only player to digress.  That will hurt his chances significantly moving forward.  Matt Barkley had the best day statistically; however, I think that Andrew Luck did the most to bolster his Heisman chances.   Kellen Moore had another great game, but is falling drastically out of the race due to a lack of exposure.   For two of the players listed above, their season is over (Luck, Barkley).  Brandon Weeden will have a chance next week to jump right back into the Heisman picture and Case Keenum could easily move up with the national exposure of the Conference USA Championship Game.  Also, Aaron Murray and Logan Thomas could both make a case with a very strong performance in their respective championship games.  Murray would need to beat LSU and Thomas would need a 5-TD performance and team domination over Clemson.  Robert Griffin will need to play next week (he is currently listed as questionable) to have a chance.  He is playing Texas, which should bring exposure and could boost his resume.   

SEC vs ACC: Week 13 Recap

After going 1-3 against the SEC yesterday, the ACC has once again proved its inferiority to the so-called “best conference” in college football.  In four games yesterday the ACC sent the teams with the 2^nd – 5^th best records in league play into battle against the top 4 schools in the very week SEC East. 

The only victory for the ACC was Florida State, who beat a bad Florida team who hasn’t beaten an FBS team with a winning record all season.  The real chance for the ACC to prove itself came with Clemson and Georgia Tech.  They both lost by a combined score of 65-30.  Then, the real smack in the face of the ACC came when Vanderbilt steam rolled Wake Forest at home by a score of 41-7. 

Sadly, while the ACC looked bad this weekend, the top of the SEC looked even better.  LSU and Alabama did a lot to impress the voters by rolling their conference rivals to pretty much sure up their rematch in the National Title Game.  I had been down on the offenses in the SEC all season, and thought that neither team would be able to score enough to blow out a good Arkansas team (for LSU) and a bitter rival Auburn (for Alabama).  I was wrong.  Their offenses seems to have clicked with Jordan Jefferson (LSU) limiting his interceptions and Trent Richardson (Alabama) boosting his Heisman resume.  I have concluded that they are the two best teams in the country.  However, I’m not sure that I would say that means that they should rematch in the NCG.  I’ll post about my thoughts on that later this week.

The only positive for the ACC continues to be the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Their model of consistency is the only thing keeping the conference ahead of the Big East.   Their big win over UVA is only the final straw in a stellar finish to the regular season.  They have won 7 straight games and will most likely be ranked #4 in the country after the BCS standings come out tonight. 

College Football Picks: Week 13

Traditionally, these final two weeks are consistently the hardest to predict.  With rivalry games, the pressure of BCS Bowl bids, and the desire to become bowl eligible.  Nevertheless, here are my best guesses at how this week turn out.  * marks games with high confidence/

Top 25:

Arkansas +12 over LSU – I have a good feeling about how well Arkansas will play in this game.  The question for me is with Arkansas’ defense and if they can slow down LSU’s offense.  I think Arkansas scores 17 pts in this game, let see if their defense can hold them.  My pick here is for LSU to win the game.

*Auburn +21 over Alabama – With the entire country behind them, Auburn comes out fighting.   I am not sold on Alabama’s offense and think they struggle in this game.  Alabama wins it in the end.

Stanford -7 over Notre Dame – Notre Dame is tied for 116^th in turnover margin and this game is at Stanford.  I don’t see an upset happening here.

Clemson +4 over South Carolina – Ever since losing Marcus Lattimore South Carolina has struggled offensively.   I think that Clemson is tired of all the turnovers and comes out firing in this game.  Clemson wins this one on the road.

Georgia -5.5 over Georgia Tech – Georgia has the #2 rush defense in the country and Aaron Murray is on fire right now.    They slow down GT triple option and win by 7 in Atlanta.

*Penn State +15 over Wisconsin – Penn State’s defense is good enough to hold Wisconsin’s offense in check and not let this game get out of hand.  Wisconsin wins at home but its closer than expected. 

ACC:

Boston College +14 over Miami – Boston College’s defense isn’t that bad and Miami has struggle lately on Offense.  Miami still wins but BC keeps it closer than the 2 TDs.

NC State -11.5 over Maryland – I’ve been saying this for the past few weeks.  Maryland is BAD! NC State looked great last week and needs to win this one for a bowl birth.  They will also be looking for revenge from last year’s loss, which kept NC State out of the ACC Championship Game. 

*Virginia Tech – 4 over Virginia – ONLY 4 POINTS!! Come on! VT wins this one by 14. 

*Duke + 13 over UNC – UNC wins this one, but Duke isn’t the Duke of years past and will keep this one very close.  UNC wins this one late.

Wake Forest -1.5 over Vanderbilt – Vandy hasn’t won a game against a decent team all year, and while Wake isn’t great, they are quite good and very well coached.  I’ll take Wake in this toss up. 

*Florida State -1 over Florida – Florida has struggled with quality competition all year and was even down by 15 to Furman in the first half last week.

Big 12:

Iowa St + 28.5 over Oklahoma – Coming off of their win over OSU and a three game winning streak the Cyclones have figured some things out and will make this game closer than 4 TDs.  Oklahoma still wins.

Missouri -24 over Kansas – Kansas looked awful last week and it won’t get any easier this week.  Mizzou wins big.

Baylor -13 over Texas Tech – Baylor doesn’t have a hangover after their win over Oklahoma.  RG3 will lead his team and prove that he is a viable Heisman candidate with this win.

Heisman: Week 13

If I had a vote for the Heisman trophy and had to vote today, here is how I would vote:

1)      Robert Griffin

2)      Trent Richardson

3)      Montee Ball

4)      Andrew Luck

5)      Case Keenum

Before you get completely up in arms, I’ve outlined my thinking below.  But, I would love to hear your thoughts on this, especially if you disagree. 

First of all, here is the list of players that I think should be considered. Sorted by team ranking:

Trent Richardson

Brandon Weeden

Justin Blackmon

David Wilson

Logan Thomas

Andrew Luck

Kellen Moore

Case Keenum

Landry Jones

LaMicheal James

Colin Klein

Aaron Murray

Montee Ball

Russell Wilson

Robert Griffin

Matt Barkley

Now I’ll divide them into QB and non-QB for discussion purposes.  First let’s discuss the non-QB.

Trent Richardson – 1380 yds, 5.8 yds/attempt, 20 TDs; 2 TD rec; 8 100-yard games; 322 rec yards

Justin Blackmon – 1241 yds, 12 yds/reception, 15 TDs; scored a TD in each of teams last 10 games

David Wilson – 1442 yds, 6.2 yds/attempt, 7 TDs; 1 TD rec; 9 100-yard games; never rushed for below 82 yards

LaMicheal James – 1284 yds, 7.4 yds/attempt, 13 TDs; 1 TD rec; 3 200-yard games

Montee Ball – 1466 yds, 6.6 yds/attempt, 25 TDs; 5 TD rec; 2 200-yard games; scored at least 2 TDs in every game

Taking into account the stats of these players, their competition and support from other teammates, I rank them as follows:

1)      Trent Richardson

2)      Montee Ball

3)      David Wilson

4)      Justin Blackmon

5)      LaMicheal James

I have gone back and forth over whether Richardson should be ahead of Ball or not.  The only distinguishing mark for me is that Alabama is ranked number two in the country.  Other than that, the pair seems to be very equally deserving.  Wilson is third because of his 9 100-yard games and Blackmon comes in 4^th because of being able to score so consistently over the past 10 games. 

Now on to the QBs

Brandon Weeden – 4111 yds, 73 comp%, 34 TDs, 12 ints, 162.2 rating; 4 400-yd passing games and 1 500-yd game

Logan Thomas – 2338 yds, 60.4 comp%, 16 TDs, 7 ints, 139.3 rating; 9 TDs rushing; 20 total TDs and 2 picks in last 6 games

Andrew Luck – 2937 yds, 70.3 comp%, 31 TDs, 8 ints, 167.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; thrown at least 2 TDs in every game this year

Kellen Moore– 2915 yds, 73.8 comp%, 35 TDs, 6 ints, 177.5 rating; 8 games with 3 or more TD passes, at least 2 TDs in every game

Case Keenum – 4269 yds, 73.4 comp%, 38 TDs, 3 ints, 186.9 rating; 3 TDs rushing; until last week, never had a game rating below 150, 9 TDs in one game

Landry Jones – 3796 yds, 65.3 comp%, 28 TDs, 10 ints, 153.4 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 3 5-TD games

Colin Klein – 1587 yds, 58.5 comp%, 11 TDs, 5 ints, 126.1 rating; 25 TDs rushing; 1013 yds rushing; 23 total TDs and 2 picks in last 6 games

Aaron Murray – 2446 yds, 60.6 comp%, 28 TDs, 8 ints, 153.3 rating; 2 TDs rushing; led team to 9 straight victories;

Russell Wilson – 2506 yds. 73.6 comp%, 26 TDs, 3 ints, 199.3 rating; 5 TDs rushing; lowest game rating is 159.8 with 5 games over 200

Robert Griffin– 3572 yds, 72.9 comp%, 33 TDs, 5 ints, 191.7 rating; 5 TDs rushing; thrown for 3 TDs in 8 games

Matt Barkley – 3105 yds, 67.6 comp%, 33 TDs, 5 ints, 155.6 rating; 2 TDs rushing; 6-TD game

The difficulty with ranking the QBs is that you have to muddle through all these stats and figure out who has had the biggest impact on their team’s performance and carried the stats to warrant being the nation’s best player.  All of that then has to run against how good the team is and how good of competition they have played. 

1)      Robert Griffin

2)      Andrew Luck

3)      Case Keenum

4)      Colin Klein

5)      Brandon Weeden

6)      Russell Wilson

7)      Kellen Moore

8)      Matt Barkley

9)      Logan Thomas

10)    Aaron Murray

11)    Landry Jones

The decision to place Robert Griffin as the number one choice was highly motivated by his performance against Oklahoma on Saturday night.  However, note that he also has the stats to back-up being placed here.  I think that Andrew Luck and Case Keenum both seem to be doing an excellent job with a sub-par supporting cast.  Luck gets the nod because of better competition.  Klein is tied for the national lead in rushing TDs.  He has fallen this far because he has pretty awful QB stats, but wins out over Weeden to to Weeden’s interception count and the loss to Iowa State.  Russell Wilson is a model of consistency and has performed well the entire year.  However, he has been aided by a limited passing game and the efficiency of Montee Ball running the ball.  Logan Thomas didn’t come in last because of his recent superb performances and my natural bias!

WHAT IF!? BCS Bowl Projections: Week 13

Here are my alternate BCS Bowl Projections:  First take a look at my SEC West Scenarios.  I really think that there are only a few ways in which we don’t have an all SEC West rematch.  I’ll outline the full results here for a few of those that I think are the most interesting.

Scenario 1

The only way in which anyone outside of the SEC West plays in the NCG is for Auburn to beat Alabama.  So let’s start off with that scenario.  I’ll also assume a victory of LSU over Arkansas.  All along I have been assuming a Houston loss as well. 

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Oklahoma State

Rose Bowl: #8 Oregon vs. #11 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #9 Kansas State vs. #4 Stanford

Sugar Bowl: #5 Alabama vs. #13 Michigan

Orange Bowl: #3 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

Scenario 2

I think one of the most interesting cases will be if Georgia wins the SEC, but we still have an all SEC championship game.  This is the only way in which we can have 3 teams from the same conference.   Here is how that would play out.  Let’s assume Alabama over Auburn and LSU over Arkansas.

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

Rose Bowl: #8 Oregon vs. #11 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #3 Oklahoma State vs. #5 Stanford

Sugar Bowl: #10 Georgia vs. #9 Kansas State

Orange Bowl: #4 Virginia Tech vs. #? WVU

Scenario 3

Here is my obligatory VT in the NCG scenario.  Auburn beats Bama, LSU wins the SEC, OU beats Oklahoma.   Just to note, I think that the Orange bowl would not choose Stanford for a second straight year and might choose the large fan base at Michigan to come down (Clemson is not eligible).

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Virginia Tech

Rose Bowl: #7 Oregon vs. #12 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #8 Oklahoma vs. #3 Stanford

Sugar Bowl: #4 Alabama vs. #9 Oklahoma State

Orange Bowl: #12 Michigan vs. #? WVU

Scenario 4

Here is my final scenario for the week.  What if VT loses to either UVA or Clemson? I think the still have a shot at an at-large.  They would probably need Michigan to lose to Ohio State just for good measure. Also of note, Houston would not need to lose.  Because the Fiesta Bowl choses first, they would not chose the higher ranked Big 12 school and choose between VT, Boise St, and Michigan St, leaving Houston to be chosen by the sugar bowl if necessary.  Yet, lets assume a Houston loss as well as normalcy in all other areas and here is how it would end up.

BCS National Championship:  #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

Rose Bowl: #7 Oregon vs. #12 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: #8 Oklahoma State vs. #11 Virginia Tech  

Sugar Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. #8 Kansas State

Orange Bowl: #16 Clemson vs. #? WVU

SEC West Scenarios

I’ve gone through all the scenarios and have decided that the only way that we avoid a rematch in the NCG is for Auburn to beat Alabama.  So go out there WAR EAGLE it up this weekend!  (Arkansas would also need to lose a game, but they could lose to either LSU or Georgia).

Here is a quick handicap of different NCG scenarios and the SEC west:

LSU vs non-SEC - Auburn over Bama & LSU over Ark or UGA over Ark

LSU vs Arkansas - Auburn over Bama & Ark over LSU & Ark over UGA 

                           OR Bama over Auburn & Ark over LSU & UGA over Bama

LSU vs Alabama - Bama over Auburn & LSU over Ark

Alabama vs Arkansas - Bama over Auburn & Bama over UGA & Ark over LSU 

Here are more details on how I came to these conclusions.

LSU:

If LSU beats Arkansas they will go to the SEC championship game.  I am convinced this will essentially clinch a berth in the NCG even if they go on to lose to Georgia.  An interesting note about this is that this could lead to there being 3 SEC schools in the BCS (the one caveat to break the 2 per league rule is that if two non-champions are ranked 1-2).  I can’t believe that this would be a possibility but it’s something to keep an eye on.  If Auburn beats Alabama, LSU will play a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

If LSU loses to Arkansas they will most likely fall below Alabama and Arkansas (voters put higher value on late season losses – that’s just the way it is).  Alabama would win the tiebreaker and head to the SEC championship game (assuming a victory over Auburn).  A win by Alabama in that game would mean an Alabama /Arkansas rematch in the NCG and a win by Georgia would mean an LSU / Arkansas rematch (again 3 BCS teams in the NCG).  If Alabama were to lose to Auburn, Arkansas would go to the SEC championship game, where a win by Arkansas would mean an LSU / Arkansas rematch.  A win by Georgia and we would avoid a rematch and LSU would a non-SEC opponent.

LSU can clinch a berth in the NCG with a win over Arkansas.  They can also earn a berth with a loss and an Auburn win or a Georgia win (in the SEC championship).   The only BCS bowl that LSU can go to is the National Championship.  

Alabama:

If Alabama beats Auburn and LSU beats Arkansas they will clinch a berth in the NCG against LSU.  However, if Arkansas beats LSU, Alabama would need to beat Georgia in order to go the NCG.  A win in that came would mean a rematch with Arkansas.  A loss in that game would mean an Arkansas / LSU rematch.

If Alabama loses to Auburn they will fall out of National Title contention (unless OSU, VT and Stanford all lose). 

Alabama will clinch a berth in the NCG with a win over Auburn and an LSU win; or, an Arkansas win and a win over Georgia.  Alabama would be a popular choice for the Sugar bowl if there isn’t an all SEC NCG. 

Arkansas

If Arkansas beats LSU and Alabama beats Auburn, Arkansas will clinch a berth in the NCG.  They would play Alabama if Alabama beat Georgia and would play LSU if Georgia beats Alabama.  If Auburn loses to Alabama, Arkansas would need to beat Georgia to be in the NCG.  If they lost to Georgia, LSU would face a non-SEC opponent in the NCG.

If Arkansas loses to LSU they will fall out of National Title contention and most likely out of a BCS bowl game. 

Arkansas can clinch a berth in the NCG with a win and an Alabama win; or, with an Auburn win and then beating Georgia in the SEC championship.  Arkansas will most likely not have a chance to attend another BCS bowl game because Alabama would be the more attractive option. 

BCS Bowl Projections: Week 13

Here are my BCS Projections for this week.  I’ll post again either later today or tomorrow with some alternate scenarios because that is really what everyone wants to think about at this time of the season.  But for now, here is the most likely scenario.  Well, and after last week I should probably call it the most unlikely scenario…

Note: After last week, Clemson and Oklahoma fell out of BCS games and Kansas State and Michigan climbed in. 

BCS Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama

Assumptions:  LSU over Arkansas and Georgia and Alabama over Auburn. 

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Assumptions: Oregon over Oregon State and PAC12 South Campion and Wisconsin over Penn State and Michigan State.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Michigan

Assumptions: Oklahoma State over Oklahoma and Michigan over Ohio State.

Sugar Bowl: Stanford vs. Kansas State

Assumptions: This is an interesting scenario here.  I think that Oklahoma will at least fall behind KSU if not fall all the way out of the top 14 with their loss to OSU, Houston will lose to Tulsa and all other SEC schools will be ineligible due to the 2 teams from a conference rule.  Also, I’m assuming KState over Iowa State and Stanford over Notre Dame.   And by the way… WHAT! Who saw this coming as a possibility a week ago! 

Just a note for my VT fans: If VT loses a game to either UVA or Clemson; they could still be in the running for an at large bid to this game or to the Fiesta Bowl.  However, seeing how far Clemson dropped, I'd be surprised if they stayed in the top 14.  Here is a site that agrees with me. 

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. WVU

Assumptions: Virginia Tech over UVA and Clemson and WVU wins Big East.

Week 12 BCS Standings Projections

I just did a work up of the BCS standings and what I think will happen this week for the top 6 teams.  I assumed that the Harris poll would reflect the AP poll, which it has done pretty accurately over the past few weeks.  I also assumed that the computer rankings would view Oklahoma State the same way that they viewed Oklahoma last week.  In this process, I mocked all 6 computer rankings by looking at where they had all 6 of these teams last week (again with Oklahoma State getting the same treatment as Oklahoma received last week) making sure to include teams like Kansas State who has been ahead of VT and Stanford.  So here it is: 

	Harris/ AP	%	USA Today	%	AH	RB	CM	KM	JS	PW	%	Avg.
LSU	1500	1	1475	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.000
Alabama	1440	0.96	1413	0.96	2	2	3	2	2	2	0.96	0.959
Arkansas	1376	0.92	1349	0.91	4	5	5	5	3	4	0.86	0.897
Oklahoma State	1206	0.80	1156	0.78	3	3	2	3	4	3	0.92	0.836
Stanford	1224	0.82	1222	0.83	8	4	9	11	7	7	0.73	0.791
Virginia Tech	1133	0.76	1242	0.84	7	8	7	7	15	6	0.75	0.782

As you can see, from this I’ll go ahead and agree with the experts that Stanford will end up jumping VT.  Hokie fans need to hope for the Harris voters to either keep Oklahoma State in front of Stanford or to also drop them to 6^th like the USA Today poll.  The problem arises if Stanford ends up being 2 spots ahead of Tech.   

College Football Picks: Week 12 Review

Last week I improved and went 8-5 against the spread and 9-4 straight up.  I also went 4-1 on my high confidence picks with my only loss being on Clemson. 

A few notes on the picks:

I did pick USC and Kansas State to win in upsets and Michigan and Miami to win in toss-ups (line within 4pts).  I also called BC, UVA and Baylor to be closer than expected.

Also, check out Scenario 3 in this post of BCS projections and read my thoughts on the BCS here. 

The "Good" of the BCS

For all the hate that is out there for the Bowl System, it did produced one of the most exciting weekends in college football in quite some time.  The importance of each loss was magnified as 4 of the top 10 teams in the BCS lost, essentially ending any hope of a championship for Clemson, Oklahoma and Oregon.  We also frequently forget that the Bowl System also creates an incentive for teams with less wins to play for the fun of a bowl birth.  This weekend, NC State and Iowa State both clinched bowl birth with their upset wins and Baylor made a case for not having to play in the “New Era Pinstripe Bowl”!

I have been considering the chance of Virginia Tech playing in the National Championship game and while I don’t think they are anywhere close to being the second best team in the nation, I do think they would deserve to play in the game.  The truth of the matter is that in any system you aren’t guaranteed for the champion to be the best team in the nation.  A playoff makes us feel better about the champion; but were UConn and Butler the two best teams to play in the NCAA Basketball Championship Game last year? No, absolutely not.  But, they both deserved to be there.  This is because they performed within the confines of the system.

Currently, I can describe the system is as follows and if you perform according to the system you will get a chance to play for the National Championship, just as if you win 5 games in the NCAA Basketball tournament, you will get to play for the Championship. 

First, the conferences are tiered as such:

Tier 1: SEC, BIG12, BIG10 (a BIG10/12 team can occasionally move to tier 2)

Tier 2: PAC12, ACC (a PAC12 team can occasionally move to tier 1)

Tier 3: BIG EAST, MWC

Tier 4: C-USA, WAC, MAC, SUNBELT

Teams are then ranked as follows:

1. Undefeated Tier 1
2. Undefeated Tier 2
3. Undefeated Tier 3 and 1 loss Tier 
4. Undefeated Tier 4 and 1 loss Tier 2
5. 1 loss Tier 3 and 2 loss Tier 1
6. 1 loss Tier 4 and 2 loss Tier 2

Take a look at the rankings and you will see that this is usually the case.  The real arguments come into play when we need to rank between tiers.  But, if there is 1 team in "group 1" (LSU) and no one in "group 2" (Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma State all lose), Virginia Tech or Stanford will have earned the right to be in the discussion for that spot in the title game.